Why January And February May Be The Best Months Of A Year To Buy A Home!

If the cost of a home is important to a buyer or if appreciation is important to a buyer now may be the best time to write an offer!

Why?  In each of the last five years the month that had the lowest median purchase price of the year was the month of January.  This is a topic I have written about before, but I want to remind everyone that January can be a good month for buyers to close on a home.

This can be seen in Chart One.  Chart One shows the median purchase price for a previously owned single family home in Maricopa County for each month from January 2014 through November 2018. The majority of homes that close in January went under contract in December.

Table One shows the appreciation at the beginning of the year compared to the end of the year.  It compares the January median purchase price to the December median purchase price for the last four years, except for 2018 which shows the median purchase price for November.  At the end of the last five years the median purchase price was from five percent to nine percent higher compared to the beginning of the year.  For example, the median purchase price in January 2018 was $273,750.  In November it was $292,000 seven percent or $18,250 higher than in January.

What if a buyer missed closing in January but will close in February?  Chart One shows that February is the month with the second lowest median purchase price of the year!

So if price and appreciation are important to a buyer now may be the best time to write an offer with a January or February closing.

A point to remember is that for both Chart One and Table One the information is for previously owned single family homes in Maricopa County.  Any city, or zip code, or subdivision within Maricopa County may trend differently.

May you have a Merry Christmas and a Happy New Year!

Fletcher R. Wilcox

V.P. Business Development, Real Estate Analyst & Author of www.TheWilcoxReport.com

A report on real estate, lending, population and job growth trends in Greater Phoenix.

Grand Canyon Title Agency

FWilcox@GCTA.com

602.648.1230

Grand Canyon Title Agency is a wholly owned subsidiary of the Fortune 302 company FNF

 

Chart One

Table One

Luxury Home Seminar September 28 at the Arizona School of Real Estate!

Record First Quarter Due to Population, Job and Wage Increases.

May 2018

Residential Market Update

Published in Arizona Journal of Real Estate & Business

Fletcher R. Wilcox

Fletcher R. Wilcox is the author of TheWilcoxReport.com. He is V. P. of Business Development and a Real Estate Analyst for Grand Canyon Title Agency. Fletcher can be reached at FWilcox@GCTA.com and 602.648.1230.

 

2018 Dollar Sales Volume Hits All-Time High for a First Quarter

Strong demand to own a home in the first quarter of 2018 led to the highest dollar sales volume ever for a first quarter.  The previous first quarter with the highest dollar sales volume was in 2005.  First quarter dollar sales volume for both 2005 and 2018 was over five billion dollars with 2018 being 445 million higher than 2005.  Dollar sales volume measures the strength or weakness of a market.  It is comprised by adding the sale price of each sale for a total.  The dollar sales volume in this report is for previously owned single family home sales in Maricopa County.  Previously owned single family home sales are eighty percent of residential sales making it the most popular residential product for buyers.

When comparing first quarter 2018 to first quarter 2017 there were 16,227 sales in 2018 which was four percent higher than the 15,602 sales in 2017. The median sale price in first quarter 2018 was $277,000 compared to $255,000 in 2017 for a five percent increase.

Demand to Own Fueled by Population, Job and Wage Growth

Population Growth: According to the U.S. Census Bureau Maricopa County for the second year in a row was ranked the number one county with the greatest increase in population.  The population of Maricopa County increased by 73,650 in the 2017 rankings, or 202 people a day.  Finishing second was Clark County, Nevada with a population increase of 47,355 or 130 per day.

Job Growth: In 2007 there were 1,865,800 people employed in Maricopa County.  Three years later in 2010 – there were 225,700 less people working.  Back then many people that lost their jobs stopped making their mortgage payments.  Mortgage payments not made lead to foreclosure notices.  Foreclosures notices lead to cheap REO sales driving down home values.  This is far from the situation today.  In 2017 there were 325,900 more people employed than in 2010.  With a growing number of employed people, and since everyone has to live somewhere, the sheer number of employed people creates a lot of competition for existing inventory.  Prediction: By the end of 2018, the average monthly number of people employed will be over 2,000,000 per month for the first-time!

Rising Wages: At the time of writing this article only wage information for Arizona was available.  Maricopa County which is located in Arizona has seventy-one percent of all employed workers in the state.  According to the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis the average state earnings for the fifty states increased 3.1% in 2017.  Earnings are defined as wages and salaries.  Arizona earnings were above average.  Arizona had the third highest earnings at 4.8 percent, behind only Idaho and Washington.  Leading Arizona’s earnings was healthcare with an increase of 6.4 percent.

Conclusion

There is a lot of news that positively affects the Maricopa County real estate market. Population, job and wage growth should continue to increase.  These increases will keep the fierce competition amongst buyers for single family homes at the most popular price ranges.  Also, because of the sheer dollar sales volume of the market, expect increased competition amongst real estate companies as more of them, some with new business models, enter our market for a piece of the dollar action.  I do expect 2018 will end as one of the best years ever for the Maricopa County real estate market.

Fletcher R. Wilcox

Fletcher R. Wilcox is the author of TheWilcoxReport.com. He is V. P. of Business Development and a Real Estate Analyst for Grand Canyon Title Agency. Fletcher can be reached at FWilcox@GCTA.com and 602.648.1230.

2018 New Tax Law: How it affects Sellers, Buyers and REALTORS!

 

Learn about the New Tax Law!

 

When:  January 25 from 10:00 a.m. to 12:00 p.m.

 

Where: 10300 N. 79th Way, Scottsdale, 85258 Class will be in a brand new $2,000,000 staged luxury home by Cachet Homes.

One block south of Shea Blvd., turn on Gold Dust just west of Hayden Road.

DO NOT GOOGLE ADDRESS — IT WILL TAKE YOU TO THE WRONG LOCATION!

RSVP to Fwilcox@GCTA.com  602.648.1230

 

 

 

 

 

REALTOR Exclusive: December 12 $2,149,900 4,637 Sq. Ft. Brand New Luxury Home Grand Opening in Heart of Scottsdale!

On December 12, from 11:30 a.m. to 1:30 p.m. join us for a catered lunch at Cachet Home’s Grand Opening of their new luxury home at Fox Haven!

Fletcher R. Wilcox, Grand Canyon Title will make real estate predictions for 2018!

Must RSVP to 480.556.7038.

Address: 10300 N. 79th Way, Scottsdale, 85258

Google Maps is not accurate! Go South of Shea Blvd. on Hayden, take Gold Dust West and turn North on 79th Way.

2018 Projections for the Single-Family Homes Market

 Published November 1, 2017 | Arizona Journal of Real Estate & Business

Fletcher Wilcox
Founder, The Wilcox Report                                                         

Previously-owned single-family homes comprise the majority of residential sales — approximately 80 percent of all residential real estate sales in the Arizona Regional Multiple Listings Services, Inc. (ARMLS). On an annual basis, the volume of previously-owned single-family homes are three to four times greater than new single-family home sales.

With year-over-year increases in sales and rising prices, 2017 should end as the best year for dollar sales volume since the record year of 2005. Dollar sales volume can be defined as the total sales price based upon the number of sales.

Dollar sales volume for past years show $26 billion in 2005, $13 billion in 2010 and $20 billion in 2016. The year 2017 will end around $21 to $22 billion, making it the second-best year for dollar sales volume.

Are Housing Prices Close to a Correction?    

Are we approaching another price correction since housing prices continue to increase? The chart below shows the annual median sale price since 2004.  In 2006, the sale price peaked at $279,000, then bottomed out at $125,000 in 2011. Looking at 2017, for the first nine months the median sale price is showing $264,000. Sometime in the second quarter of 2018, the median sale price may hit $280,000.

These are not inflation adjusted numbers. Starting with the year 2006 through the summer of 2017, inflation has been about 18 percent.

If we reach a median sale price of $280,000 in 2018, is it a sign of another price correction? My answer is no. Since 2013, the annual median sale price has increased between seven percent and eight percent each year, which reflects a healthy increase. At the same time, borrowers have been able to qualify for these higher prices, even in light of today’s strict lending standards when compared to 2004–2006.

The chart below compares the monthly median sale price from 2004 to 2005, as well as from 2016 to 2017.

As illustrated, the total sale price increase when comparing 2016 to 2017 on a month-to-month basis, shows a minimum increase of four percent (or $12,230) and a maximum increase of eight percent (or $19,000). Whereas, when comparing 2004 to 2005 on a month-to-month basis, the minimum increase was 27 percent (or $43,000) with a maximum increase hitting as high as 53 percent (or $96,000). Such a tremendous one year run-up in prices was not healthy or sustainable.

One explanation for the run-up in prices during 2004 to 2005 was a result of artificial demand caused by spec investors purchasing with 100 percent financing. Today, spec investors are required to put down 20 percent, which is one reason that I don’t believe we are headed for a price correction.

Let’s look at another reason.

2018 Predictions: Plenty of Demand to Own

2018 will experience fierce competition in many locations for available homes that are priced right, especially those in the mid-to-lower price ranges. The reason for the increased competition is more people, more jobs and tight inventory.

Maricopa County ranks number one for population growth compared to 3,142 counties in the United States — with 81,360 more people added. This number is based on the U.S. Census Bureau’s most recent 2017 numbers. Over half of this increase, or 43,189, comes from domestic migration. Compare Maricopa County to Cook County, where Chicago is located, which has the largest declining population for a county in the United States. Their domestic migration was a minus 66,244. The average daily increase in the population of Maricopa County was 222 people per day. I expect the same numbers or higher for next year.

During the real estate recession, Maricopa County lost approximately 235,000 jobs. Not only have those jobs come back, but an additional 75,000 jobs have been added since then. This job trend translates to more home buyers. Based on U.S. Department of Labor data, I estimate about 100 jobs are created each day in Maricopa County.

There are now more buyers in the Maricopa County market than ever before. Prices and demand will go up. In fact, I know of a lender that has prequalified a number of potential buyers who are ready to buy, but are unable to buy because of our tight inventory.

More buyers, tighter inventory and higher prices will make some homes on the market that don’t meet the expectation of an HGTV reality show look a bit better.

Stay tuned for a positive, single-family home market in 2018.

Fletcher R. Wilcox is the author of TheWilcoxReport.com and Vice President of Business Development for Grand Canyon Title. His market analysis has been referenced in the Wall Street Journal, Bloomberg News, HousingWire.com and National Mortgage News. Fletcher can be reached at FWilcox@GCTA.com and 602.648.1230.

 

West Valley Real Estate Event: Predictions for 2018 & How to Use Market Data With Your Clients & Appraisal Q & A!

          West Valley Real Estate Event  

                                                                                                                         

Wednesday, November 1, 2017 from 10:30 a.m. to 12:00 p.m.

  • Predictions for 2018

  • How to use market data for credibility with your clients

  • 2017 real estate trends for sales, new listings, estimated months of supply

  • Compare home prices today and before the real estate recession

  • What month of the year has the highest sale price?

  • Appraisals and home values

  • What can you say to an appraiser?

  • What have you always wanted to ask an appraiser?

  • How much does solar increase value?

  • Bring your questions

Where: Cachet at the Wigwam

14200 W Village Pkwy #2256 Litchfield Park, AZ 85340

Realtors will tour Cachet’s beautiful single family homes, townhomes and condos.

Lunch served at 12:00 p.m.

RSVP to FWilcox@GCTA.com or 602.648.1230

Speakers

Fletcher R. Wilcox is V.P. of Business Development and a Real Estate Analyst at Grand Canyon Title. He grew up in Phoenix. Graduated from A.S.U. He is author of The Wilcox Report. His market analysis on the Greater Phoenix residential real estate market has been mentioned in the Wall Street Journal, Bloomberg News, MarketWatch, National Mortgage News, Housing Wire.com. Fletcher teaches residential contract writing for renewal hours and served on one of the three Arizona Association of REALTORS subcommittees for the February 2017 AAR Residential Resale Real Estate Purchase Contract.


 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Robert Oglesby is the Founder, President, and Chief Appraiser of AppraisalTek, a full service appraisal company that has established a reputation for providing high-quality appraisal services. Robert supervises all appraisal management operations for multiple large mortgage bankers and his company processes a high volume of appraisals every month. Robert employs and manages full-time employees, including staff appraisers and independent contractors. Robert is a LEED Green Associate, and active certified appraiser. In addition to his work at AppraisalTek, Robert organizes and presents professional seminars for real estate professionals.

     Sponsor

 

 

 

 

 

 

Home Prices Keep Going Up in Greater Phoenix!

It has been a long time since the median sale price for a previously owned single family home was this high.

May 2017 Results  

The median sale price for a previously owned single family home in May was $269,000. The last time the sale price was at the $269,000 level was almost ten years ago.  It was August of 2007.

The data in this report was compiled from the Arizona Regional Multiple Listing Services, Inc.  The geographic area is Greater Phoenix (Maricopa County).

The May 2017 median sale price represented a year-over-year increase of 6.5% or $16,500 compared to May 2016 when it was $252,500. This is a healthy increase.  See Table A.

A Brief History of Median Sale Price

The first time in Maricopa County history that the median sale price of a previously owned single family home reached the May 2017 level was in June 2005. Back then the year-over-year increase was not 6.5% or even close.  It was 47.1% or $86,500.  It went from $183,500 in June 2004 to $270,000 in June 2005.  See Table B.

The May median sale price of $269,000 has come a long way since August 2011 when it bottomed at $120,000. But it still has a little way to go to reach the peak month of $287,500 in June 2006.

Sales in May 2017

May 2017 sales were up 9.5% or by 614 compared to May 2016. Additionally, May 2017 sales were up 13.3% or by 834 over April 2017.  Compare this to May 2016 sales which were up 5.4% or by 332 over April 2016.  See Table C.

New Monthly Listings in May 2017

May 2017 new monthly listings had the highest year-over-year increase for a month this year. There were 466 more listings that hit the market this May than last May.  This jump in inventory most likely will help keep up sales momentum in June and July.

Overall, the number of new monthly listings is flat when comparing the number for the first five months of 2017 to 2016. See total in Table D.

Estimated Months of Supply by Price Point

It is a seller’s market for homes priced under $600,000 (as long as they are priced right). For all price points under $600,000 the estimated months of supply is under four months.  The price range with the highest number of sales was $200,000 to $249,999.  The estimated months of supply in this range was one month.  See Table E.

 

Fletcher R. Wilcox is V.P. of Business Development and a Real Estate Analyst at Grand Canyon Title Agency.
He is author of www.TheWilcoxReport.com. His market analysis on residential real estate in Greater Phoenix has been referenced in the Phoenix Business Journal, the Wall Street Journal, Bloomberg News, MarketWatch, HousingWire.com, National Mortgage News, and the Arizona Republic. He has been a guest speaker on local radio and both local and national TV.
He teaches real estate agents marketing strategies and teaches residential contract writing and Arizona title procedures. He served on one of the subcommittees at the Arizona Association of REALTORS subcommittees making recommendations on changes to the February 2017 AAR Residential Resale Real Estate Purchase Contract. Fletcher started snowboarding in 2006. He is not very good.   Fletcher may be reached at FWilcox@GCTA.com  602.648.1230

Arizona jobs projected to increase by 138,553 and Greater Phoenix jobs by 115,258. More jobs will keep the fire going for already hot housing market.

On March 9, the Arizona Office of Economic Opportunity released job projections.  Jobs in Arizona are projected to increase by 138,553 from the Second Quarter of 2016 through the Second Quarter of 2018.  The majority of the increase in jobs is expected to be in Greater Phoenix.  Jobs in Greater Phoenix are projected to increase by 115,258.  Greater Phoenix in this report is defined as Maricopa and Pinal counties.

This increase in jobs, along with a growing population, will continue to fuel the demand for residential housing.    Greater Phoenix is currently in the midst of a very hot demand for previously owned single family properties in many price ranges.

According to the Arizona Regional Multiple Listing Services, Inc., sales of previously owned single family homes in the first two months of 2017 are fourteen percent higher than for the same period last year.  The number of sales in January and February 2017 were 9,999 compared to 8,777 for the same period last year.

While sales are up inventory is down.  The number of previously owned new monthly listings in January and February 2017 were 5% or 860 less than for the same period last year.

When writing a contract, be prepared for your buyers to compete against multiple offers when a property is priced at market.

Expect prices to go up in many prices ranges.

The majority of the increase in jobs will be in Greater Phoenix 

To read the report go to https://laborstats.az.gov/sites/default/files/documents/files/ST_IndProjReport.pdf

2016-2018 Projected Job Growth by Region
Area Name 2016 Estimated Total Employment Level 2018 Projected Total Employment Level Numeric Growth Annualized Percentage Growth
Arizona 2,852,181 2,990,734 138,553 2.4%
Phoenix MSA1 2,051,434 2,166,692 115,258 2.8%
Tucson MSA2 382,515 392,583 10,068 1.3%
Balance Of State3 414,363 427,176 12,813 1.5%
1) Maricopa and Pinal Counties
2) Pima County 
3) All other areas in Arizona less Maricopa, Pinal, and Pima Counties 

Arizona’s industry employment projections are produced in conjunction with the U.S. Department of Labor (U.S. DOL), Employment and Training Administration (ETA).

Fletcher R. Wilcox is V.P. of Business Development and a Real Estate Analyst at Grand Canyon Title Agency.

He is author of www.TheWilcoxReport.com. His market analysis on residential real estate in Greater Phoenix has been mentioned in the Wall Street Journal, Bloomberg News, MarketWatch, HousingWire.com, National Mortgage News, Arizona Republic and the Phoenix Business Journal. He has been a guest speaker on local radio and both local and national TV.

He teaches real estate agents strategies on marketing and instructs real estate classes in residential contract writing and Arizona title procedures.  Fletcher started snowboarding in 2006. He is not very good.

Fletcher may be reached at mailto:FWilcox@GCTA.com  602.648.1230

What time of the year are there the most new listings and the most real estate sales? A review of the numbers in Greater Phoenix.

 When are Real Estate Agents the Busiest?

By

Fletcher R. Wilcox

Grand Canyon Title Agency

Real estate agents make their commissions as listing agents and as selling agents. So at what times of the year are agents the busiest listing seller’s homes and closing on sales with buyers? What times of the year are listings and sales the slowest? Does real estate activity really slow down in the hot summer months?

So, what I did was research the number of new listings and sales for existing single family homes in Maricopa County, Arizona.  I broke down the years 2014, 2015 and the first half of 2016 into quarters. The data is from the Arizona Multiple Listing Services, Inc. (ARMLS).

The Findings

image001

New Listings: Which Quarter Had the Most and the Least?

In both 2014, 2015 and in the first half of 2016 we saw the same pattern for new listings. The first quarter, the winter quarter, had the most new listings. Then like a stair step, the number of new listings declines in each of the following quarters with the fourth quarter having considerable less new listings than the first quarter. Then as the chart below shows, listings shoot up again in the first quarter of the New Year.

More New Listings and Sales in First-Half of 2016 Than in Either 2014 or 2015

When comparing the number of new listings in the first two quarters of 2016 there were 2,792 more new listings than 2015 and 1,280 than 2014. This increase in inventory along with job growth and population growth and boomerang buyers has fueled home ownership. There were 1,268 more sales in the first two quarters of 2016 than 2015 and a whopping 4,243 more sales than 2014.

image001

 

Sales

Sales: Which Quarter Had the Most and Least?

While the first quarter has the most new listings, the second quarter has the most sales. The chart below shows single family sales. In 2014, the quarter with the least number of sales was the first quarter. In 2015, it was a toss-up for the least number of sales between the first quarter and the fourth quarter. There were only thirty-six more closings in the fourth quarter over the first quarter. The second best quarter for sales has been the third quarter.

There are More Sales in the Hot Summer Months Than You Might Think

If we compare sales in the third quarter, the hot weather months of July, August and September, to the best quarter, the second quarter, we saw a decline in sales of 12% in both 2015 and 2014.

However, the third quarter has been the second best quarter for sales. In 2015, third quarter sales were 18% higher than in both the first and fourth quarters.

image002

Conclusions

In recent history, the first and second quarters of the year had the most new listings followed by the second and third quarters as the most sales. While real estate sales slow-down in the hot weather third quarter compared to the spring second quarter, the third quarter has been the number two quarter for most sales. While sales in the first and fourth quarters are the slowest, there is still lots of sales activity. Data shows sales in the first and fourth quarters range between 12,000 and 14,000. Look for sales in the fourth quarter of  2016 to be over 14,000 sales.

Fletcher Wilcox 2016 picture

Fletcher R. Wilcox is V.P. of Business Development and a Real Estate Analyst at Grand Canyon Title Agency.

He is author of www.TheWilcoxReport.com. His market analysis on residential real estate in Greater Phoenix has been mentioned in the Wall Street Journal, Bloomberg News, MarketWatch, HousingWire.com, National Mortgage News, Arizona Republic and the Phoenix Business Journal. He has been a guest speaker on local radio and both local and national TV.

He teaches real estate agents strategies in marketing and instructs real estate renewal classes in residential contract writing and Arizona title procedures.  Fletcher started snowboarding in 2006. He is not very good.

Fletcher may be reached at FWilcox@GCTA.com  602.648.1230