REALTOR Exclusive: December 12 $2,149,900 4,637 Sq. Ft. Brand New Luxury Home Grand Opening in Heart of Scottsdale!

On December 12, from 11:30 a.m. to 1:30 p.m. join us for a catered lunch at Cachet Home’s Grand Opening of their new luxury home at Fox Haven!

Fletcher R. Wilcox, Grand Canyon Title will make real estate predictions for 2018!

Must RSVP to 480.556.7038.

Address: 10300 N. 79th Way, Scottsdale, 85258

Google Maps is not accurate! Go South of Shea Blvd. on Hayden, take Gold Dust West and turn North on 79th Way.

2018 Projections for the Single-Family Homes Market

 Published November 1, 2017 | Arizona Journal of Real Estate & Business

Fletcher Wilcox
Founder, The Wilcox Report                                                         

Previously-owned single-family homes comprise the majority of residential sales — approximately 80 percent of all residential real estate sales in the Arizona Regional Multiple Listings Services, Inc. (ARMLS). On an annual basis, the volume of previously-owned single-family homes are three to four times greater than new single-family home sales.

With year-over-year increases in sales and rising prices, 2017 should end as the best year for dollar sales volume since the record year of 2005. Dollar sales volume can be defined as the total sales price based upon the number of sales.

Dollar sales volume for past years show $26 billion in 2005, $13 billion in 2010 and $20 billion in 2016. The year 2017 will end around $21 to $22 billion, making it the second-best year for dollar sales volume.

Are Housing Prices Close to a Correction?    

Are we approaching another price correction since housing prices continue to increase? The chart below shows the annual median sale price since 2004.  In 2006, the sale price peaked at $279,000, then bottomed out at $125,000 in 2011. Looking at 2017, for the first nine months the median sale price is showing $264,000. Sometime in the second quarter of 2018, the median sale price may hit $280,000.

These are not inflation adjusted numbers. Starting with the year 2006 through the summer of 2017, inflation has been about 18 percent.

If we reach a median sale price of $280,000 in 2018, is it a sign of another price correction? My answer is no. Since 2013, the annual median sale price has increased between seven percent and eight percent each year, which reflects a healthy increase. At the same time, borrowers have been able to qualify for these higher prices, even in light of today’s strict lending standards when compared to 2004–2006.

The chart below compares the monthly median sale price from 2004 to 2005, as well as from 2016 to 2017.

As illustrated, the total sale price increase when comparing 2016 to 2017 on a month-to-month basis, shows a minimum increase of four percent (or $12,230) and a maximum increase of eight percent (or $19,000). Whereas, when comparing 2004 to 2005 on a month-to-month basis, the minimum increase was 27 percent (or $43,000) with a maximum increase hitting as high as 53 percent (or $96,000). Such a tremendous one year run-up in prices was not healthy or sustainable.

One explanation for the run-up in prices during 2004 to 2005 was a result of artificial demand caused by spec investors purchasing with 100 percent financing. Today, spec investors are required to put down 20 percent, which is one reason that I don’t believe we are headed for a price correction.

Let’s look at another reason.

2018 Predictions: Plenty of Demand to Own

2018 will experience fierce competition in many locations for available homes that are priced right, especially those in the mid-to-lower price ranges. The reason for the increased competition is more people, more jobs and tight inventory.

Maricopa County ranks number one for population growth compared to 3,142 counties in the United States — with 81,360 more people added. This number is based on the U.S. Census Bureau’s most recent 2017 numbers. Over half of this increase, or 43,189, comes from domestic migration. Compare Maricopa County to Cook County, where Chicago is located, which has the largest declining population for a county in the United States. Their domestic migration was a minus 66,244. The average daily increase in the population of Maricopa County was 222 people per day. I expect the same numbers or higher for next year.

During the real estate recession, Maricopa County lost approximately 235,000 jobs. Not only have those jobs come back, but an additional 75,000 jobs have been added since then. This job trend translates to more home buyers. Based on U.S. Department of Labor data, I estimate about 165 jobs are created each day in Maricopa County.

There are now more buyers in the Maricopa County market than ever before. Prices and demand will go up. In fact, I know of a lender that has prequalified a number of potential buyers who are ready to buy, but are unable to buy because of our tight inventory.

More buyers, tighter inventory and higher prices will make some homes on the market that don’t meet the expectation of an HGTV reality show look a bit better.

Stay tuned for a positive, single-family home market in 2018.

Fletcher R. Wilcox is the author of TheWilcoxReport.com and Vice President of Business Development for Grand  Canyon Title. His market analysis has been referenced in the Wall Street Journal, Bloomberg News, HousingWire.com and National Mortgage News. Fletcher can be reached at FWilcox@GCTA.com and 602.648.1230.

 

West Valley Real Estate Event: Predictions for 2018 & How to Use Market Data With Your Clients & Appraisal Q & A!

          West Valley Real Estate Event  

                                                                                                                         

Wednesday, November 1, 2017 from 10:30 a.m. to 12:00 p.m.

  • Predictions for 2018

  • How to use market data for credibility with your clients

  • 2017 real estate trends for sales, new listings, estimated months of supply

  • Compare home prices today and before the real estate recession

  • What month of the year has the highest sale price?

  • Appraisals and home values

  • What can you say to an appraiser?

  • What have you always wanted to ask an appraiser?

  • How much does solar increase value?

  • Bring your questions

Where: Cachet at the Wigwam

14200 W Village Pkwy #2256 Litchfield Park, AZ 85340

Realtors will tour Cachet’s beautiful single family homes, townhomes and condos.

Lunch served at 12:00 p.m.

RSVP to FWilcox@GCTA.com or 602.648.1230

Speakers

Fletcher R. Wilcox is V.P. of Business Development and a Real Estate Analyst at Grand Canyon Title. He grew up in Phoenix. Graduated from A.S.U. He is author of The Wilcox Report. His market analysis on the Greater Phoenix residential real estate market has been mentioned in the Wall Street Journal, Bloomberg News, MarketWatch, National Mortgage News, Housing Wire.com. Fletcher teaches residential contract writing for renewal hours and served on one of the three Arizona Association of REALTORS subcommittees for the February 2017 AAR Residential Resale Real Estate Purchase Contract.


 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Robert Oglesby is the Founder, President, and Chief Appraiser of AppraisalTek, a full service appraisal company that has established a reputation for providing high-quality appraisal services. Robert supervises all appraisal management operations for multiple large mortgage bankers and his company processes a high volume of appraisals every month. Robert employs and manages full-time employees, including staff appraisers and independent contractors. Robert is a LEED Green Associate, and active certified appraiser. In addition to his work at AppraisalTek, Robert organizes and presents professional seminars for real estate professionals.

     Sponsor

 

 

 

 

 

 

Home Prices Keep Going Up in Greater Phoenix!

It has been a long time since the median sale price for a previously owned single family home was this high.

May 2017 Results  

The median sale price for a previously owned single family home in May was $269,000. The last time the sale price was at the $269,000 level was almost ten years ago.  It was August of 2007.

The data in this report was compiled from the Arizona Regional Multiple Listing Services, Inc.  The geographic area is Greater Phoenix (Maricopa County).

The May 2017 median sale price represented a year-over-year increase of 6.5% or $16,500 compared to May 2016 when it was $252,500. This is a healthy increase.  See Table A.

A Brief History of Median Sale Price

The first time in Maricopa County history that the median sale price of a previously owned single family home reached the May 2017 level was in June 2005. Back then the year-over-year increase was not 6.5% or even close.  It was 47.1% or $86,500.  It went from $183,500 in June 2004 to $270,000 in June 2005.  See Table B.

The May median sale price of $269,000 has come a long way since August 2011 when it bottomed at $120,000. But it still has a little way to go to reach the peak month of $287,500 in June 2006.

Sales in May 2017

May 2017 sales were up 9.5% or by 614 compared to May 2016. Additionally, May 2017 sales were up 13.3% or by 834 over April 2017.  Compare this to May 2016 sales which were up 5.4% or by 332 over April 2016.  See Table C.

New Monthly Listings in May 2017

May 2017 new monthly listings had the highest year-over-year increase for a month this year. There were 466 more listings that hit the market this May than last May.  This jump in inventory most likely will help keep up sales momentum in June and July.

Overall, the number of new monthly listings is flat when comparing the number for the first five months of 2017 to 2016. See total in Table D.

Estimated Months of Supply by Price Point

It is a seller’s market for homes priced under $600,000 (as long as they are priced right). For all price points under $600,000 the estimated months of supply is under four months.  The price range with the highest number of sales was $200,000 to $249,999.  The estimated months of supply in this range was one month.  See Table E.

 

Fletcher R. Wilcox is V.P. of Business Development and a Real Estate Analyst at Grand Canyon Title Agency.
He is author of www.TheWilcoxReport.com. His market analysis on residential real estate in Greater Phoenix has been referenced in the Phoenix Business Journal, the Wall Street Journal, Bloomberg News, MarketWatch, HousingWire.com, National Mortgage News, and the Arizona Republic. He has been a guest speaker on local radio and both local and national TV.
He teaches real estate agents marketing strategies and teaches residential contract writing and Arizona title procedures. He served on one of the subcommittees at the Arizona Association of REALTORS subcommittees making recommendations on changes to the February 2017 AAR Residential Resale Real Estate Purchase Contract. Fletcher started snowboarding in 2006. He is not very good.   Fletcher may be reached at FWilcox@GCTA.com  602.648.1230

Arizona jobs projected to increase by 138,553 and Greater Phoenix jobs by 115,258. More jobs will keep the fire going for already hot housing market.

On March 9, the Arizona Office of Economic Opportunity released job projections.  Jobs in Arizona are projected to increase by 138,553 from the Second Quarter of 2016 through the Second Quarter of 2018.  The majority of the increase in jobs is expected to be in Greater Phoenix.  Jobs in Greater Phoenix are projected to increase by 115,258.  Greater Phoenix in this report is defined as Maricopa and Pinal counties.

This increase in jobs, along with a growing population, will continue to fuel the demand for residential housing.    Greater Phoenix is currently in the midst of a very hot demand for previously owned single family properties in many price ranges.

According to the Arizona Regional Multiple Listing Services, Inc., sales of previously owned single family homes in the first two months of 2017 are fourteen percent higher than for the same period last year.  The number of sales in January and February 2017 were 9,999 compared to 8,777 for the same period last year.

While sales are up inventory is down.  The number of previously owned new monthly listings in January and February 2017 were 5% or 860 less than for the same period last year.

When writing a contract, be prepared for your buyers to compete against multiple offers when a property is priced at market.

Expect prices to go up in many prices ranges.

The majority of the increase in jobs will be in Greater Phoenix 

To read the report go to https://laborstats.az.gov/sites/default/files/documents/files/ST_IndProjReport.pdf

2016-2018 Projected Job Growth by Region
Area Name 2016 Estimated Total Employment Level 2018 Projected Total Employment Level Numeric Growth Annualized Percentage Growth
Arizona 2,852,181 2,990,734 138,553 2.4%
Phoenix MSA1 2,051,434 2,166,692 115,258 2.8%
Tucson MSA2 382,515 392,583 10,068 1.3%
Balance Of State3 414,363 427,176 12,813 1.5%
1) Maricopa and Pinal Counties
2) Pima County 
3) All other areas in Arizona less Maricopa, Pinal, and Pima Counties 

Arizona’s industry employment projections are produced in conjunction with the U.S. Department of Labor (U.S. DOL), Employment and Training Administration (ETA).

Fletcher R. Wilcox is V.P. of Business Development and a Real Estate Analyst at Grand Canyon Title Agency.

He is author of www.TheWilcoxReport.com. His market analysis on residential real estate in Greater Phoenix has been mentioned in the Wall Street Journal, Bloomberg News, MarketWatch, HousingWire.com, National Mortgage News, Arizona Republic and the Phoenix Business Journal. He has been a guest speaker on local radio and both local and national TV.

He teaches real estate agents strategies on marketing and instructs real estate classes in residential contract writing and Arizona title procedures.  Fletcher started snowboarding in 2006. He is not very good.

Fletcher may be reached at mailto:FWilcox@GCTA.com  602.648.1230

What time of the year are there the most new listings and the most real estate sales? A review of the numbers in Greater Phoenix.

 When are Real Estate Agents the Busiest?

By

Fletcher R. Wilcox

Grand Canyon Title Agency

Real estate agents make their commissions as listing agents and as selling agents. So at what times of the year are agents the busiest listing seller’s homes and closing on sales with buyers? What times of the year are listings and sales the slowest? Does real estate activity really slow down in the hot summer months?

So, what I did was research the number of new listings and sales for existing single family homes in Maricopa County, Arizona.  I broke down the years 2014, 2015 and the first half of 2016 into quarters. The data is from the Arizona Multiple Listing Services, Inc. (ARMLS).

The Findings

image001

New Listings: Which Quarter Had the Most and the Least?

In both 2014, 2015 and in the first half of 2016 we saw the same pattern for new listings. The first quarter, the winter quarter, had the most new listings. Then like a stair step, the number of new listings declines in each of the following quarters with the fourth quarter having considerable less new listings than the first quarter. Then as the chart below shows, listings shoot up again in the first quarter of the New Year.

More New Listings and Sales in First-Half of 2016 Than in Either 2014 or 2015

When comparing the number of new listings in the first two quarters of 2016 there were 2,792 more new listings than 2015 and 1,280 than 2014. This increase in inventory along with job growth and population growth and boomerang buyers has fueled home ownership. There were 1,268 more sales in the first two quarters of 2016 than 2015 and a whopping 4,243 more sales than 2014.

image001

 

Sales

Sales: Which Quarter Had the Most and Least?

While the first quarter has the most new listings, the second quarter has the most sales. The chart below shows single family sales. In 2014, the quarter with the least number of sales was the first quarter. In 2015, it was a toss-up for the least number of sales between the first quarter and the fourth quarter. There were only thirty-six more closings in the fourth quarter over the first quarter. The second best quarter for sales has been the third quarter.

There are More Sales in the Hot Summer Months Than You Might Think

If we compare sales in the third quarter, the hot weather months of July, August and September, to the best quarter, the second quarter, we saw a decline in sales of 12% in both 2015 and 2014.

However, the third quarter has been the second best quarter for sales. In 2015, third quarter sales were 18% higher than in both the first and fourth quarters.

image002

Conclusions

In recent history, the first and second quarters of the year had the most new listings followed by the second and third quarters as the most sales. While real estate sales slow-down in the hot weather third quarter compared to the spring second quarter, the third quarter has been the number two quarter for most sales. While sales in the first and fourth quarters are the slowest, there is still lots of sales activity. Data shows sales in the first and fourth quarters range between 12,000 and 14,000. Look for sales in the fourth quarter of  2016 to be over 14,000 sales.

Fletcher Wilcox 2016 picture

Fletcher R. Wilcox is V.P. of Business Development and a Real Estate Analyst at Grand Canyon Title Agency.

He is author of www.TheWilcoxReport.com. His market analysis on residential real estate in Greater Phoenix has been mentioned in the Wall Street Journal, Bloomberg News, MarketWatch, HousingWire.com, National Mortgage News, Arizona Republic and the Phoenix Business Journal. He has been a guest speaker on local radio and both local and national TV.

He teaches real estate agents strategies in marketing and instructs real estate renewal classes in residential contract writing and Arizona title procedures.  Fletcher started snowboarding in 2006. He is not very good.

Fletcher may be reached at FWilcox@GCTA.com  602.648.1230

 

Arizona Real Estate: Why more Canadians may sell their U.S. Properties in 2016

This article was first published in the Arizona REALTOR® Voice on March 8, 2016.

by Fletcher R. Wilcox on March 9, 2016

Many Canadians own residential real estate in Arizona. They are especially attracted to the desert areas of Arizona during the winter when they can soak in the sun rather than shake off the snow.

Many got spectacular deals purchasing residential properties when prices were low and the Canadian dollar was close to being on par with the U.S. dollar.

Changes in the Canadian economy and dollar make it likely that there are now fewer Canadian buyers, but more sellers of their U.S. properties.  According to the Wall Street Journal on February 25, Canada’s economy is under pressure because of a drop in oil prices. In 2015, the Canadian-to-U.S. dollar average was at .75 cents compared to .97 cents in 2011.

Let’s look at a scenario as to why more Canadians may sell their U.S. properties this year than in recent years.

If a Canadian bought a house in the U.S. in 2011 and paid $150,000 USD, they would have paid close to $155,000 CAD.  In 2015, if that same property, because of appreciation, sold for $225,000 USD, a Canadian seller would receive $300,000 CAD, almost double what they paid in Canadian dollars in 2011. Quite a gain. So far in 2016, the Canadian dollar is even weaker against the U.S. dollar than last year.

USD v CAD exchange rate 2010-15

If a Canadian or if any foreigner, decides to sell their U.S. residential property, they should be aware of the Foreign Investment in Real Property Tax Act known as FIRPTA.

FIRPTA is the mandatory withholding of income tax on the disposition of U.S. real property interests by a foreign person(s) defined as a nonresident alien individual, a foreign corporation, a foreign partnership, trust or estate. According to the IRS, not only are sales under FIRPTA, but so are exchanges, gifts and transfers.

On February 17, the FIRPTA withholding tax rate increased up to 15% as demonstrated in the chart below:
FIRPTA demo chart

According to FIRPTA, what is the buyer’s responsibility? A buyer is solely responsible for the FIRPTA withholding tax from a seller.

When the seller is a foreign person? The IRS states:

“In most cases, the transferee/buyer is the withholding agent.  If you are the transferee/buyer you must find out if the transferor is a foreign person.  If the transferor is a foreign person and you fail to withhold, you may be held liable for the tax.”

To help make buyers and sellers aware of FIRPTA, Arizona REALTORS® has addressed it in the Seller’s Property Disclosure Statement (SPDS) and Residential Resale Real Estate Purchase Contract (Resale Contract).

Lines 13 and 14 in the SPDS read:
Is the legal owner(s) of the Property a foreign person or a non-resident alien pursuant to the Foreign Investment in Real Property Tax Act (FIRPTA)? Yes No. If yes, consult a tax advisor; mandatory withholding may apply.

Lines 135-138 in the Resale Contract read:
IRS and FIRPTA reporting: Seller agrees to comply with IRS reporting requirements. If applicable, Seller agrees to complete, sign, and deliver to Escrow Company a certificate indicating whether Seller is a foreign person or non-resident alien pursuant to the Foreign Investment in Real Property Tax Act (“FIRPTA”). Buyer and Seller acknowledge that if the Seller is a foreign person, the Buyer must withhold a tax of up to 15% of the purchase price, unless an exemption applies.

The seller in the Resale Contract agrees to comply with FIRPTA if they are a foreign person; if applicable, the buyer must withhold the tax. In the SPDS, the seller must indicate if they are a foreign person or non-resident alien; if they are, they should consult a tax advisor.

While different settlement agents may have different procedures, escrow officers are not equipped to give tax or legal advice concerning FIRPTA.

The IRS does not require the settlement agent to:

  • Determine a seller’s status as a foreign person
  • Decide how much FIRPTA tax should be withheld
  • Decide if the seller qualifies for an exemption, or
  • Complete FIRPTA forms

What then may a settlement agent do?

IF a buyer has determined that a seller owes FIRPTA tax, the escrow officer may assist them in collecting completed forms and withholding tax from the seller and buyer, and send the forms and taxes to the IRS on behalf of the seller and buyer.  (Remember, there is no duty by the escrow officer to complete FIRPTA documents.)

IF a seller applies for an IRS certificate exempting or reducing FIRPTA withholding tax prior to the transaction closing, it is likely that the certificate from the IRS will not be received until post-closing.  A settlement agent may agree to hold FIRPTA funds post-closing and send the funds to the IRS if certain conditions are met prior to the closing.  If the required conditions are met, then both the buyer and seller will have to sign post-closing holdback instructions.

IF the requirements of a post-closing holdback are not met, the seller and buyer will have one of two options.  The settlement agent may collect the proper forms and send in the withholding tax at the time of the closing.  Or the seller and buyer mutually agree in writing that the FIRPTA funds may be transferred to an attorney or CPA’s trust account.  The attorney or CPA will be responsible for the FIRPTA withholding amount.

Tips
If there is a FIRPTA withholding, both the seller and buyer will need either a social security number or a valid U.S. Individual Taxpayer Identification Number (ITIN) in order to process FIRPTA documents. If someone is not eligible for a social security number, they must apply for an ITIN.

Because of the length of time it may take to receive either a social security number or ITIN, it is a good idea to obtain one before a property is put on the market.

Also, talk with the escrow officer where the escrow will be processed prior to contract acceptance to find out what the officer will do on a FIRPTA transaction and what requirements must be met for a post-closing holdback.

A seller and buyer should always consult with a qualified CPA or tax attorney regarding FIRPTA.

Conclusion
In 2016, the Arizona real estate market will likely see more FIRPTA transactions with foreigners, specifically Canadians, selling their U.S. properties.  A knowledge of FIRPTA by both the foreign seller and buyer will help ensure a smother closing.      

Fletcher R. Wilcox is vice president of business development at Grand Canyon Title Agency

FWilcox@GCTA.com

602.648.1230

 

Phoenix Real Estate: Attend the first major real estate event of 2016! Why 2016 likely will be a better year for sales, guest speakers on closing trends and a special speaker from the CFPB!

Growth

Jim Sexton 2015 President Arizona Association of REALTORS and Fletcher R. Wilcox Grand Canyon Title invite you to attend the first major event in 2016 on residential closing trends you should know and obtain three C/E hours of contract law. We have put together an event which will bring you up to date on residential closings.  Bring your questions, listen and learn. This is an Industry Partners Conference follow-up event. There will be a special guest speaker from the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau. See bio below!

Find out why it is likely there will be more residential sales in 2016 than 2015. (You have to see this!)

REGISTRATION DETAILS:

www.AARonline.com/event/E/TRIDFEB

Attend the class! TRID LIVE: Real Stories, Real Solutions. Three hours of C/E in contract law. February 4, 2016 | 8:00 a.m. to 1200 p.m. OrangeTree Golf Resort 10601 N. 56th Street, Scottsdale AZ 85254

Panel of designated brokers: Martha Appel, Coldwell Banker; Gerry Russell, Realty Executives, Laurie McDonnell, United Brokers Group

Panel of lenders: Sherry Olsen, Desert Schools Federal Credit Union, Matthew Kelchner, Suburban Mortgage

Panel of escrow officers: Leslie Banes, First American Title; Patti Shaw, Old Republic Title,

Moderators: Jim Sexton, 2015 AAR President and Fletcher R. Wilcox, Grand Canyon Title

Download (PDF, Unknown)

Topics

  • What can lenders provide buyers to strengthen their offers, in addition to the PQF?
  • Is it taking longer to close under TRID? Yes, no, or sometimes?
  • Triggers that might delay a closing.
  • Are loan documents being signed three days before the close of escrow?
  • Closings and FIRPTA. Do you know what the IRS says when there is a foreign seller?
  • Are you seeing the buyer’s Closing Disclosure? The seller’s Closing Disclosure?
  • When can agents review the settlement statement?
  • Why are agents getting different settlement statements in their closing package?
  • Do you have questions on the changes to the AAR Resale Contract, PQF, LSU and TRID?
  • Special presentation on top ten ARMLS violations.

Noerena Limon from the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau (CFPB) will be our guest speaker. She is a policy analyst in the CFPB Office of Research Markets and Regulations and is the project lead for the Know Before You Owe, Closing Time Initiative. Throughout her 2-and-a-half years at the CFPB, Noerena has worked in the Office of Director Richard Cordray, the Office of Mortgage Markets and the Office of Liquidity Lending, focusing on mortgage and small dollar lending policy.

 

 

 

 

Phoenix Real Estate: What’s new? Webinar December 15 from 12:00 p.m to 1:00 p.m sponsored by the Arizona Association of REALTORS!

What’s new with real estate closings and TRID? Check out this webinar from the Arizona Association of REALTORS!

https://aar.uberflip.com/h/i/181800174-trid-part-3-12-15-15

Fletcher Wilcox, Grand Canyon Title Agency will be joining 2015 AAR President Jim Sexton to talk about the recent changes to residential closings. We will discuss financing, getting your buyers pre-approved, contract timelines, the settlement statement, changes to the AAR Resale Contract, TRID, and we will be taking your questions.  Join us?

 

fletch

Jim Sexton                                                                                                                                              Fletcher R. Wilcox

2015 President                                                                                                                       V.P. Business Development

Arizona Association of REALTORS                                                                                  Grand Canyon Title Agency

Designated Broker Realty One

Greater Phoenix Real Estate: What happened to all the distressed sales? October sales trends and estimated months of supply by price range.

Sold Sign

Looking back five years

This report reviews existing single family home sale activity in Greater Phoenix.  Greater Phoenix in this report is defined as Maricopa County.

In October 2011 distressed sales drove sales.  In October 2011 66% of existing single family sales were distressed sales.  In October 2015 distressed sales were 6% of existing single family sales.

The 6% or 267 distressed sales in October 2015 were categorized by 132 lender owned sales, 111 short sales and 24 HUD sales.  Contrast this to October 2011 when there were 3,692 distressed sales made up of 1,843 lender owned sales, 1,590 short sales and 111 HUD sales.

Large numbers of distressed sales knocked down prices.  October 2011 had 485 sales under $50,000 compared to 9 in October 2015.  The median sales price of an existing single family home in October 2011 was $125,000.  In October 2015 it was $236,000.

Don’t expect a sudden supply of distressed properties to hit the market any time soon.  A major indicator of future distressed sales is foreclosure starts.  According to NetValueCentral.com in October 2011 there were 3,623 foreclosure starts compared to 770 in October 2015.  The all-time record for the most foreclosure notices filed in a single month in Maricopa County was March of 2009 when there were 9,052.

Download (PDF, Unknown)

Category October 2011 October 2015 Change % Change
Existing Sales 5,625 4,619 -1,006 -18%
Distressed Sales 3,692 267 -3,425 -93%
Lender Owned Sales 1,843 132 -1,711 -93%
Short Sales 1,590 111 -1,479 -93%
HUD Sales 259 24 -235 -91%
Sales Under $50,000 485 9 -476 -98%
Foreclosures Notices 3,623 770 -2,853 -79%
Median Sales Price $125,000 $236,000 $111,000 89%

October 2015 Existing Single Family Home Sales

Sales in October 2015 were slightly higher than in October 2014. Overall, sales for the first ten months of 2015 are 4,698 or 9.8% higher than sales compared to the same period last year.

New Monthly Listings

From January through May of 2015 there were 1,641 less new monthly listings compared to the same time period of last year. Then the June weather must have changed things. Starting in June 2015 through October, 1,853 more sellers put their single family homes on the market than for the same months in 2014.

Download (PDF, Unknown)

October 2015 Estimated Months of Supply by Price Range

Sales under $300,000 were hot. The estimated months of supply for sales under $300,000 ranges from .8 months to 2.6 months. The table below shows the estimated months of supply by price range on November 18.

Short sales, lender owned sales and HUD sales made up six percent of existing single family sales in October. There were only 11 distressed sales over $500,000.

The most expensive home sale in October was a 33,000 square foot home that sold for $7,315,000 in Paradise Valley.

Is the existing single family market a buyer or seller market? Let’s answer this question from a supply and demand perspective.   The general rule is that around six months inventory represents an equilibrium market between demand and supply or between seller and buyer. Below you can find the estimated months of supply by price range.

Download (PDF, Unknown)

Fletcher R. Wilcox

V.P. Business Development

Real Estate Analyst

CFPB External Operations Expert

Grand Canyon Title Agency

A Division of FNTA

602.648.1230

 Author of www.TheWilcoxReport.com

A report on real estate, lending and job growth trends in Greater Phoenix.

Twitter@FletchWilcox

 Grand Canyon Title Agency is a wholly owned subsidiary of the Fortune 314 company FNF.

 Disclaimer

The information in this report may not be the opinion of Grand Canyon Title Agency.

While deemed accurate this report does not guarantee the accuracy of the data.  Some numbers will change.  Report may not reflect all real estate activity.  Information should be verified.  This article is of a general nature, and is not intended as investment advice, real estate advice, lending advice or legal advice.  Please consult your broker, your lender, your own independent legal counsel, your certified public accountant.

Note: Included in some of the charts in this report may be a small number of new home sales.

Skip to toolbar