Greater Phoenix Real Estate: What happened to all the distressed sales? October sales trends and estimated months of supply by price range.

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Looking back five years

This report reviews existing single family home sale activity in Greater Phoenix.  Greater Phoenix in this report is defined as Maricopa County.

In October 2011 distressed sales drove sales.  In October 2011 66% of existing single family sales were distressed sales.  In October 2015 distressed sales were 6% of existing single family sales.

The 6% or 267 distressed sales in October 2015 were categorized by 132 lender owned sales, 111 short sales and 24 HUD sales.  Contrast this to October 2011 when there were 3,692 distressed sales made up of 1,843 lender owned sales, 1,590 short sales and 111 HUD sales.

Large numbers of distressed sales knocked down prices.  October 2011 had 485 sales under $50,000 compared to 9 in October 2015.  The median sales price of an existing single family home in October 2011 was $125,000.  In October 2015 it was $236,000.

Don’t expect a sudden supply of distressed properties to hit the market any time soon.  A major indicator of future distressed sales is foreclosure starts.  According to NetValueCentral.com in October 2011 there were 3,623 foreclosure starts compared to 770 in October 2015.  The all-time record for the most foreclosure notices filed in a single month in Maricopa County was March of 2009 when there were 9,052.

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Category October 2011 October 2015 Change % Change
Existing Sales 5,625 4,619 -1,006 -18%
Distressed Sales 3,692 267 -3,425 -93%
Lender Owned Sales 1,843 132 -1,711 -93%
Short Sales 1,590 111 -1,479 -93%
HUD Sales 259 24 -235 -91%
Sales Under $50,000 485 9 -476 -98%
Foreclosures Notices 3,623 770 -2,853 -79%
Median Sales Price $125,000 $236,000 $111,000 89%

October 2015 Existing Single Family Home Sales

Sales in October 2015 were slightly higher than in October 2014. Overall, sales for the first ten months of 2015 are 4,698 or 9.8% higher than sales compared to the same period last year.

New Monthly Listings

From January through May of 2015 there were 1,641 less new monthly listings compared to the same time period of last year. Then the June weather must have changed things. Starting in June 2015 through October, 1,853 more sellers put their single family homes on the market than for the same months in 2014.

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October 2015 Estimated Months of Supply by Price Range

Sales under $300,000 were hot. The estimated months of supply for sales under $300,000 ranges from .8 months to 2.6 months. The table below shows the estimated months of supply by price range on November 18.

Short sales, lender owned sales and HUD sales made up six percent of existing single family sales in October. There were only 11 distressed sales over $500,000.

The most expensive home sale in October was a 33,000 square foot home that sold for $7,315,000 in Paradise Valley.

Is the existing single family market a buyer or seller market? Let’s answer this question from a supply and demand perspective.   The general rule is that around six months inventory represents an equilibrium market between demand and supply or between seller and buyer. Below you can find the estimated months of supply by price range.

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Fletcher R. Wilcox

V.P. Business Development

Real Estate Analyst

CFPB External Operations Expert

Grand Canyon Title Agency

A Division of FNTA

602.648.1230

 Author of www.TheWilcoxReport.com

A report on real estate, lending and job growth trends in Greater Phoenix.

Twitter@FletchWilcox

 Grand Canyon Title Agency is a wholly owned subsidiary of the Fortune 314 company FNF.

 Disclaimer

The information in this report may not be the opinion of Grand Canyon Title Agency.

While deemed accurate this report does not guarantee the accuracy of the data.  Some numbers will change.  Report may not reflect all real estate activity.  Information should be verified.  This article is of a general nature, and is not intended as investment advice, real estate advice, lending advice or legal advice.  Please consult your broker, your lender, your own independent legal counsel, your certified public accountant.

Note: Included in some of the charts in this report may be a small number of new home sales.

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