Scottsdale Real Estate: Who has the advantage the buyer or the seller?

Sales

Let’s answer this question from a supply and demand perspective.   The rule is that around six months of supply is an equilibrium market, meaning neither the buyer or seller has an advantage when it comes to supply and demand.  Let’s review the table below.

We see in the table that in September 2015 homes priced under $600,000 have an estimated months of supply of 3.5 months or less.  Homes priced between $600,000 and $699,999 have 4.5 months.  Homes between $700,000 and $899,000 are at 6 months.  Homes between $1,500,000 and $1,999,999 have a 25 month supply.

So the lower the price, the more demand.  Thus, more of a seller’s market and the opposite is true for higher priced properties.

Also, as shown in the table out of the 399 sales in September there were three short sales and eight lender owned sales.  The distressed market has almost disappeared.

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The next two tables compare monthly sales and monthly new listings year-over-year for the first nine months. For the first nine months of 2015, there were 311 or 9% more sales than 2014.

When comparing new monthly listings, there were 175 less new monthly listings in the first six months of 2015 than 2014, but this trend reversed from July through September or the third quarter.  In the third quarter new monthly listings were 160 higher in 2015 over 2014. 

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The next chart show how existing single family properties were purchased by two categories, either cash or with a loan.  In 2015, there were 310 more purchases with a loan compared to 2014.

The next chart is for purchases over $1,000,000.  In 2015, there were 20 more purchases over $1,000,000 than in 2014.  Sixteen of these purchases were with a loan.

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So who has the advantage? The buyer or seller?  From a supply and demand perspective in September sellers were favored for sales under $600,000.  For sales between $700,000 and $899,999 it is a flip of the coin, while sales over $900,000 favored buyers.

Overall sales are up in 2015 over 2014.  The increase in demand is with buyers purchasing with a loan or mortgage.  This demand to purchase with a loan most likely will continue to grow since Scottsdale has job growth and people desire to live in Scottsdale.

Let’s keep an eye on new monthly listings and see if the fourth quarter follows the third quarter trend of the year-over-year increase in new monthly listings.

So who has the advantage? The buyer or seller?  From a supply and demand perspective in September sellers were favored for sales under $600,000.  For sales between $700,000 and $899,999 it is a flip of the coin, while sales over $900,000 favored buyers.

Overall sales are up in 2015 over 2014.  The increase in demand is with buyers purchasing with a loan or mortgage.  This demand to purchase with a loan most likely will continue to grow since Scottsdale has job growth and people desire to live in Scottsdale.

Let’s keep an eye on new monthly listings and see if the fourth quarter follows the third quarter trend of the year-over-year increase in new monthly listings.

The information in this report is compiled from ARMLS (Arizona Regional Multiple Listing Service, Inc.)

Fletcher R. Wilcox

V.P. Business Development

Real Estate Analyst

CFPB External Operations Expert

Grand Canyon Title Agency

A Division of FNTA

602.648.1230

 Author of www.TheWilcoxReport.com

A report on real estate, lending and job growth trends in Greater Phoenix.

Twitter@FletchWilcox

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