Opportunity!

There is a lot of opportunity for real estate agents. In my presentations I show the exodus of people leaving California. And by the way, I show the number of people leaving Cook County where Chicago is located.

Do you know where a favorite destination is for ex-Californians and ex- Chicagoans? You are right. Scottsdale and Greater Phoenix.

If you are a real estate agent and want some fresh ideas, contact me.
Fletcher teaches Influencer Marketing, how to influence sellers & buyers.

Fletcher R. Wilcox is V.P. of Business Development and a Real Estate Analyst at Grand Canyon Title.

Grand Canyon Title is a subsidiary of Fidelity National Financial (FNF). FNF is ranked 302 on the FORTUNE 500® list of America’s largest companies.

Fletcher is the founder of The Wilcox Report. His market analysis on residential real estate in Greater Phoenix has been mentioned in publications such as the Wall Street Journal, MarketWatch, Bloomberg News, HousingWire.com, National Mortgage News, the Arizona Republic and the Phoenix Business Journal. He has been a guest speaker on both local and national TV and radio. He served on one of the three Arizona Association of REALTORS® subcommittees which made recommendations for changes to the 2017 AAR Residential Resale Real Estate Purchase Contract. Fletcher may be reached at fwilcox@gcta.com and 602.648.1230

Learn about the planning, projects, and developments impacting the growth in Greater Phoenix. Local industry experts will discuss initiatives that will significantly impact housing and commercial space. You’ll learn about growth and the effects on the Valley and the overall economic impact. You won’t want to miss this in-depth discussion about the trends and growth in the months to come.

Wednesday, May 15

10:00 a.m. to 12:30 p.m.

Where: Cachet at Union Park

This is a new subdivision so the maps programs are not all correct. The address is 2014 W. Union Park Drive, Phoenix, AZ 85085. Cachet at Union Park is located on the NW corner of 19th Ave and Happy Valley. Go north on Happy Valley and turn west on Union Park Drive. Look for the blue flags on the right side of the road.

RSVP SGoodrich@CachetHomes.net

Tour the model homes and find out job & population growth trends and appraisal trends with Robert Oglesby, Appraisal Tek and Fletcher R. Wilcox, Grand Canyon Title. Lunch served at 12:30 p.m.  

April 18, 2019 edition of The Wilcox Report

Today the U.S. Census Bureau delivered their report on population growth in the United States.  Out of the 3,142 counties in the United States Maricopa County had the largest increase in population.  As predicted this is the third year in row that Maricopa County has led all counties with the greatest increase in population.  Year-over-year the U.S. Census Bureau showed the population of Maricopa County increasing by 81,244 or 222 people per day.  This increase of 222 per day outshined last year’s report by 20 or ten percent more people per day when the population grew by 202 per day.         

Today’s release by the U.S. Census Bureau substantiates that Maricopa County (Greater Phoenix) is a top destination for employers locating and relocating their operations in Maricopa County to take advantage of our population growth.     

Even though Maricopa County (Greater Phoenix) is one of the most competitive markets in the country to be a real estate agent it also shows that there is tremendous opportunity for agents because of the growth in population and jobs.

For more information on how as a real estate you can be influential with sellers and buyers and take advantage of job and population growth, contact me to attend one of my classes on 2019 INFLUENCER MARKETING!

Fletcher R. Wilcox is V.P. of Business Development and a Real Estate Analyst at Grand Canyon Title. Grand Canyon Title is a subsidairy of Fidelity National Financial (FNF). FNF is ranked 302 on the FORTUNE 500® list of America’s largest companies.

Fletcher speaks throughout Greater Phoenix and teaches Influencer Marketing to real estate agents. Fletcher is the founder of The Wilcox Report. His market analysis on residential real estate in Greater Phoenix has been mentioned in publications such as the Wall Street Journal, MarketWatch, Bloomberg News, HousingWire.com, National Mortgage News, the Arizona Republic and the Phoenix Business Journal. He has been a guest speaker on both local and national TV and radio. He served on one of the three Arizona Association of REALTORS® subcommittees which made recommendations for changes to the 2017 AAR Residential Resale Real Estate Purchase Contract. Fletcher may be reached at fwilcox@gcta.com and 602.648.1230

Arizona Mortgage Lenders Association

Monthly Networking Lunch

Thursday, April 18, 2019 11:30 am – 1:15pm                                     Orange Tree Golf Resort                                                                          10601 N 56th St, Scottsdale, 85254 

                                     I will be introducing Special FBI Agent Todd Kopka.  He will explain the methods the FBI uses to protect the U.S. from terrorist attacks. He will also describe how the FBI leads a Joint Terrorism Task Force with federal, state and local agencies. He will talk about how they work together as one team by leveraging one another’s skills to present and disrupt terrorist attacks across the country.

Event Registration

Cost — $35.00 AMLA Members, $45.00 Non Members

Fletcher R. Wilcox is V.P. of Business Development and a Real Estate Analyst at Grand Canyon Title. Grand Canyon Title is a subsidairy of Fidelity National Financial (FNF). FNF is ranked 302 on the FORTUNE 500® list of America’s largest companies.

Fletcher speaks throughout Greater Phoenix and teaches Influencer Marketing to real estate agents. Fletcher is the founder of The Wilcox Report. His market analysis on residential real estate in Greater Phoenix has been mentioned in publications such as the Wall Street Journal, MarketWatch, Bloomberg News, HousingWire.com, National Mortgage News, the Arizona Republic and the Phoenix Business Journal. He has been a guest speaker on both local and national TV and radio. He served on one of the three Arizona Association of REALTORS® subcommittees which made recommendations for changes to the 2017 AAR Residential Resale Real Estate Purchase Contract. Fletcher may be reached at fwilcox@gcta.com and 602.648.1230  

Arizona Journal of Real Estate & Business April 2019 Edition

By

                                    Median Purchase Price Continues Ascent

The median purchase of a previously owned single family home in Maricopa County (Greater Phoenix) continued its rise in February. It was $293,000 this February which was $3,000 or one percent higher than in January, and $17,000 or six percent higher than February 2018 when it was $276,000. See Chart one for a monthly median purchase price history for the last sixty-two months.

While the median purchase price climbed, the thirty year fixed mortgage rate declined. According to Freddie Mac, in February 2019 the average thirty year fixed mortgage rate was 4.37%.  See Table one.  Its lowest rate in twelve months. The last time it was lower was in February of 2018 when it was 4.33%. Just ninety days ago, the thirty year fixed mortgage rate was one-half of a percent higher than this February when it was 4.83% in November. The current lower rate is a reason why buyers may want to consider purchasing a home. Another reason is that the first part of the year is the time when the most new listings hit the market. This means more choices for buyers to choose from.   

 Chart one

Fifteen Cities: February Sales, New Listings, Median Purchase Price

While sales and new listings were down year-over-year for most cities, the median purchase price was up in all but one. Table two compares February 2018 to February 2019 for sales, new listings and the median purchase price for previously owned single family homes for fifteen cities located in either Maricopa County or Pinal County. Year-over-year sales were down in ten of the cities; new listings were down in ten cities. However, fourteen cities had a higher median purchase price.

• 

Job Growth Update

According to the Arizona Office of Economic Opportunity in 2018 in Maricopa County there were 68,100 more people employed than in 2017. Table three shows the three main job categories: Good Producing, Service-Providing and Government and their sub-categories. Year-over-year every category had higher employment except for the sub-category Federal Government

Job Update

Report Conclusion

There are more people employed than ever before in Maricopa County. So why are year-over-year sales down but prices up? Stay tuned for next month’s edition for some answers. If you think you know the reason(s) why, please email me at FWilcox@GCTA.com

Fletcher R. Wilcox is V.P. of Business Development and a Real Estate Analyst at Grand Canyon Title.

Grand Canyon Title is a subsidairy of Fidelity National Financial (FNF). FNF is ranked 293 on the FORTUNE 500® list of America’s largest companies.

Fletcher speaks through out Greater Phoenix and teaches Influencer Marketing to real estate agents. His next public event is March 25 at the Scottsdale Area Association of REALTORS.

Fletcher is the founder of The Wilcox Report. His market analysis on residential real estate in Greater Phoenix has been mentioned in publications such as the Wall Street Journal, MarketWatch, Bloomberg News, HousingWire.com, National Mortgage News, the Arizona Republic and the Phoenix Business Journal. He has been a guest speaker on both local and national TV and radio. He served on one of the three Arizona Association of REALTORS® subcommittees which made recommendations for changes to the 2017 AAR Residential Resale Real Estate Purchase Contract. Fletcher may be reached at fwilcox@gcta.com and 602.648.1230

If choice is important to a buyer and a monthly mortgage payment is important to a buyer now may be a good time for a buyer.  The information in this article was compiled from the Arizona Regional Multiple Listing Services, Inc. for previously owned single family homes in Maricopa County (Greater Phoenix).

More Inventory More Choices

The fourth quarter of the year is the quarter when the least number of sellers put their homes on the market.  Then the first quarter of the year kicks off the seller listing season.  The first and second quarters of the year is when the highest number of sellers list their homes.  Thus, this is the time when a  buyer has the most choices of homes to choose from.  The chart below shows the number of sellers listings their homes by quarter from 2015 through 2018.  For the last three years, the number of new listings in the fourth quarter is down about twenty-five percent or 5,500 less homes hitting the market than the first quarter.               

February 2019 Thirty-Year Fixed Mortgage Rate Lowest In A Year 

If the monthly amount a homeowner has to pay is important to them the monthly average rate of a thirty-year fixed mortgage in February 2019 was the lowest since February 2018 according to Freddie Mac data.  It was 4.37 percent this February compared to 4.33 percent in February 2018.    But more significant is that last November the thirty-year fixed mortgage rate was 4.87 percent or 1/2 a percent higher than February 2019.  See the chart below.  How does this translate into real dollars?  If a homebuyer paid $300,000 for a home with ten percent down, the monthly principle and interest with a thirty-year fixed mortgage rate at 4.87 percent is $1,428.04.  But if a homebuyer’s thirty-year fixed mortgage rate was 4.37 percent their monthly principle and interest is $1,347.27 or $80.77 less per month.  For the year they would pay $969.24 less.

On March 14, Freddie Mac reported that for the week the thirty-year fixed mortgage rate was 4.31 percent.            

         

There May Be One More Reason to Consider Buying

Another reason to consider buying now is rising home prices.  The median home sale price continues to go up.  In January 2019 it was $290,000.  In February 2019 it was $293,000.  March 2019 will likely end up somewhere around $295,000 to $297,000 and by June $300,000 to $303,000 (these are just my predictions).

  

As of today we are almost half way through the peak seller listing season.  The thirty-year fixed rate is at its lowest point in a year and sales prices continue to increase.  With all this said, there are other factors each and every potential buyer must consider to determine if now is a good time for them to buy.

Fletcher R. Wilcox is V.P. of Business Development and a Real Estate Analyst at Grand Canyon Title.  Grand Canyon Title is a subsidairy of Fidelity National Financial (FNF).  FNF is ranked 293 on the FORTUNE 500® list of America’s largest companies.  Fletcher speaks through out Greater Phoenix and teaches Influencer Marketing.  His next public event is March 25 at the Scottsdale Area Association of REALTORS. 

Fletcher is the founder of The Wilcox Report. His market analysis on residential real estate in Greater Phoenix has been mentioned in publications such as the Wall Street Journal, MarketWatch, Bloomberg News, HousingWire.com, National Mortgage News, the Arizona Republic and the Phoenix Business Journal. He has been a guest speaker on both local and national TV and radio. He served on one of the three Arizona Association of REALTORS® subcommittees which made recommendations for changes to the 2017 AAR Residential Resale Real Estate Purchase Contract.

Fletcher may be reached at fwilcox@gcta.com and 602.648.1230     

 

See directions at bottom.

This event will be held at Cachet at the Wigwam Amenity Area.  RSVP to Fwilcox@gcta.com  or sgoodrich@cachethomes.net  602.648.1230

2018 Results — 2019 Predictions

The Residential Real Estate Market in Greater Phoenix (Maricopa County)

By

Fletcher R. Wilcox

V.P. Business Development & Real Estate Analyst

Grand Canyon Title

FWilcox@gcta.com 602.648.1230

This article was published January 29, 2019 in the Arizona Journal of Real Estate & Business

The total number of residential sales in 2018 was equal to the number of sales in 2017. According to data from The Arizona Regional Multiple Listing Services, Inc. known as ARMLS, sales in Maricopa County (Greater Phoenix) in 2018 were 84,001 compared to 84,049 in 2017. When the number of sales are broken down by the eight ARMLS residential categories there were some small year-over-year differences. The only two categories in 2018 that were down year-over-year were single family and gemini twin sales. Single family sales were down 395 or less than one percent and gemini twin sales were down 10 sales or 1.6 percent. The other six categories accounted for 357 more sales in 2018 over 2017. See Table One.

Single Family Sales

Let’s review the residential category that by far had the most sales. Previously owned single family home sales in both 2017 and 2018 were over seventy-five percent of all ARMLS residential sales. When comparing previously owned single family sales year-over-year by month there was a difference the first part of 2018 compared to the last part of the year. From January through June there were 679 more sales compared to the same time last year. Then from July through December there were 1,071 less sales compared to 2017. See Table two.

New Listings

Previously Owned Single Family Homes Overall new listings were slightly down in 2018 compared to 2017. There were 82,682 new listings in 2018 compared to 83,616 for a decrease of one percent or 934 new listings. For the number of sales to increase in 2019 there will have to be an increase in new listing inventory in the most desired price ranges. Expect fierce competition amongst real estate agents for listings in the most popular price ranges.

Median Purchase Price

Previously Owned Single Family Homes In 2018 the median purchase price for a previously owned single family home in Maricopa County reached an all-time high. Last May it reached $294,900 surpassing the pre-real estate recession high of $287,500 in June 2006. Sometime in the second quarter of 2019 it most likely will be over $300,000. Chart one shows the median purchase price for a previously owned single family home month by month for the last five years. As seen in the chart, the median purchase is always higher for the same month in the following year. In 2019 this trend should continue. The continual rise in the median purchase price means that there are very few homes still underwater in 2018. There were approximately 350 short sales in 2018, according to ARMLS data. There should be even less in 2019. Of course while rising home prices increase household wealth they decrease affordability, making it more difficult for potential first time homebuyers to purchase.                                     Chart one

Dollar Sales Volume Dollar sales volume for previously owned single family homes in Maricopa County is the highlight of 2018! According to ARMLS data the 2018 dollar sales volume of $24.6 billion represents the total purchase prices of the 68,101 sales in 2018. See Chart two. Only one previous year has finished with a higher dollar sales volume. That was in 2005 when it was $26 billion represented by 78,419 sales. High dollar sales volume and the number of residential sales in Maricopa County are probably the main reasons new real estate companies, some with disruptive business models, have opened offices in Maricopa County. Because of the many different real estate companies and thousands of real estate agents in Maricopa County expect there to be fierce competition amongst them in 2019 for sellers and buyers.

Competition in 2019

The competition in 2019 amongst real estate companies for sellers and buyers will not be the only battleground. Loan officers will be in competition for qualified buyers. Qualified buyers will in competition for priced right listings.

Competition amongst loan officers for purchase business will increase in 2019 because of higher mortgage rates. For the last few years low interest rates have boomed the number of people refinancing into a lower mortgage rate. Refinances provided considerable business for loan officers. Because of the low number of households now refinancing a great portion of loan officer business is wiped out. Because of this, more loan officers will be going after the same purchase business.

Competition amongst buyers will increase in 2019 because the number of buyers is increasing. Why? More people moving to Maricopa County. According to the U.S. Census Bureau Maricopa County for the last two years gained more people than any other county in the United States. The population of Maricopa County has increased by 155,000 the last two years. Prediction: when U.S. Census data comes out in 2019 Maricopa County for the third year in a row will be the number one county for increase in population.

A major reason why Maricopa County’s population will continue to grow is the exodus of people and companies from states that have high taxes and difficult business regulations, and/or have very cold weather, and/or have a political environment that people feel is no longer friendly. Below in Table three is the most recent domestic migration data from the U.S. Census Bureau. Maricopa County’s domestic migration was a net 38,852. Cook County, where Chicago is located, domestic migration was a negative 65,871 people. Los Angeles County lost 91,680 to domestic migration. A popular destination for people leaving Los Angeles County is Maricopa County. When the U.S. Census Bureau releases its 2019 migration data, we should see similar patterns as shown in Table three.

Along with the increase in population has been an increase in jobs. The number of people employed in Maricopa County has gone up substantially the last five years. In 2018 there were 272,600 more people employed than in 2013. By the end of 2019 there should be an additional 65,000 to 70,000 more people employed which will add to the number of people whom will either rent or own.

With a growing number of people employed and with a limited number of priced right listings, the presentation of a buyer’s offer must stand out to be successful.

So Want Does a Real Estate Agent Need to do to be Competitive in 2019?

In 2019 real estate companies with large advertising budgets will be advertising reasons why potential sellers and buyers should work with them. Some will sell technology, some will sell convenience, and others will sell discounts. So as a real estate agent you need to make as many contacts with potential sellers and buyers as you can. Be prepared to give them compelling reasons why they should use you as their agent! If today someone asked you why should I use you as my agent what would be your response? Have a system in place to keep in touch with future clients and past clients. Increase the probability of sellers and buyers picking you as their agent by applying the social psychology principles of persuasion to both your social media and one on one meetings. These principles are Authority, Social Proof and Liking.

Sellers and buyers want relevant real estate information. People defer to those whom have knowledge on real estate trends and are able to communicate trends effectively. This creates authority. People tend to do things they see other people doing. This is social proof. Make it known when you get a listing or close a home with a buyer. Spread the word of your successes with client testimonials. Liking is when someone likes you, they sense you like them and you have things in common. When someone likes you, you have a greater chance of them saying yes to your requests.

All in all, because of population and job growth in Maricopa County, 2019 should be a great year, but competitive year, to be a real estate agent!

Fletcher Wilcox is V.P. of Business Development and a Real Estate Analyst at Grand Canyon Title Agency. Grand Canyon Title Agency is a member of the Fidelity National Financial (FNF) family of companies. They are the nation’s largest group of title companies and title insurance underwriters. FNF is ranked 293 on the FORTUNE 500® list of America’s largest companies.  He may be reached at FWilcox@gcta.com  602.648.1230 

Fletcher is the founder of The Wilcox Report. His market analysis on residential real estate in Greater Phoenix has been mentioned in publications such as the Wall Street Journal, MarketWatch, Bloomberg News, HousingWire.com, National Mortgage News, the Arizona Republic and the Phoenix Business Journal. He has been a guest speaker on both local and national TV and radio.

He served on one of the three Arizona Association of REALTORS® subcommittees which made recommendations for changes to the 2017 AAR Residential Resale Real Estate Purchase Contract. For more than fifteen years he has taught classes at the Arizona School of Real Estate & Business. He teaches renewal hours in contract law and legal issues. He is a member of the Arizona State Escrow Association, the Arizona Association of REALTORS, the Scottsdale Area Association of REALTORS and is a board member and V.P. of Networking for the Arizona Mortgage Lenders Association.  He often speaks at the Heart of Scottsdale REALTOR Marketing Session.

For eleven years he served as a citizen board member on the Phoenix Police Department’s Disciplinary Review & Use of Force Boards. He is a past board member of Alice Cooper’s Solid Rock Teen Center. Fletcher started snowboarding in 2006 and is not very good.