Arizona 2021 Market Forecast. Via zoom
November 20, 2020 9:00 a.m. to 12:00 p.m.
Arizona School of Real Estate & Business
Register: https://lnkd.in/gac9hgJ
Three hours legal issues.

September Residential Numbers for Greater Phoenix          

Homes Values at Highest Year-Over-Year Increase in Seven Years

Monthly Rent Reaches an All-Time High

BY  Fletcher Wilcox | V.P. Grand Canyon Title

FWilcox@gcta.com 602.648.1230

Grand Canyon Title is a subsidiary of FNF a Fortune 500 Company

The desire to live in a single family resale home is strong.  So strong that purchase prices for single family resale homes are at all-time highs in Greater Phoenix.  But purchase prices are not the only number that has reached an all-time high.  So has monthly rental rates for single family resale homes.  The single family rental market has boomed during the pandemic.  Even before the pandemic the robust demand to live in a single family home saw single family rental communities springing up in Greater Phoenix.   This is report is on single family resale homes in Greater Phoenix, which is the most popular residential product when measured by the number of sales.  The data in this report is compiled from the Arizona Regional Multiple Listing Services, Inc, known as ARMLS.

In September many properties were only on the market for a blink of an eye.  There was a ninety-two percent increase in the number of single family resale homes that were on the market for only one day in September 2020 compared to September 2019.  The number of homes on the market for five days or less this September increased by eighty-five percent over September of last year.  So when thinking about the estimated supply of inventory no longer think in terms of how many months of supply there is, but now think in terms of how many days of supply.  As of October 8, the overall estimated months of supply was less than one month.  For active listings under $350,000 there was a twelve day supply.  For listings between $350,000 and $499,999 there was an eighteen day supply.  The traditional thought amongst many real estate agents was that a six month supply of inventory represents equilibrium between a seller’s and buyer’s market meaning neither had a market advantage.

I sound like a broken record.  But it happened again.  The September 2020 median purchase price for a single family resale home in Greater Phoenix reached a new record high.  It reached $362,000.  This is $5,000 higher than August 2020 and $42,000 higher than January 2020.  To date the 2020 median purchase price year-over-year is up twelve percent.  This is the highest year-over-year Increase in seven years.  And this is happening during a pandemic and high unemployment.

The September 2020 median monthly rent for a single family resale home in Greater Phoenix, after setting an all-time high of $1,895 in August 2020, dropped in September 2020.  In September it was $1,862 down $33 from August 2020.  In January 2020 it was $1,650.

Sales of single family resale homes were 6,632 in September 2020.  This was 974 or seventeen percent higher than September 2019.  September 2020, so far this year, is the month with the highest year-over-year increase in sales.  

New monthly listings of single family resale homes in September 2020 were 7,479 which were 3 more than August 2020 and were 939 higher than September 2019.  More sellers listed their homes in the third quarter than in either the first or second quarters of this year.  This is not the normal seasonal pattern, but of course this is not a normal season.  There were 21,980 new listings in the third quarter compared to 20,790 in the first quarter and 18,565 in the second quarter.  There were 20,226 sales in the third quarter compared to 15,738 in the first quarter and 16,442 in the second quarter.

Conclusion

Even with a pandemic and high employment the very strong demand to live in a single family resale home has created record purchase prices and monthly rents.  If you are a buyer, and you see a property you want, don’t blink. 

Fletcher R. Wilcox is V.P. of Business Development and a Real Estate Analyst Grand Canyon Title.  Grand Canyon Title is a subsidiary of Fidelity National Financial (FNF).  FNF is on the list of Fortune 500 Companies.  Fletcher may be reached at fwilcox@gcta.com or 602.648.1230.

Fletcher is on the Board of Directors at the Scottsdale Association of REALTORS® (SAAR). In 2020 he started an Influencer Marketing series for real estate agents at SAAR. He is V.P. of Networking and on the board for the Arizona Mortgage Lenders Association. He is a member of the Arizona State Escrow Association and the Arizona Association of REALTORS.

Fletcher is the founder of The Wilcox Report. His market analysis on residential real estate in Greater Phoenix has been mentioned in publications such as the Wall Street Journal, MarketWatch, Bloomberg News, HousingWire.com, National Mortgage News, the Arizona Republic, the Phoenix Business Journal and AZ Big Media. He has been a guest speaker on both local and national TV and radio. He served on one of the three Arizona Association of REALTORS® subcommittees which made recommendations for changes to the 2017 AAR Residential Resale Real Estate Purchase Contract.  He teaches residential contract law to both real estate agents and escrow officers.

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Fletcher R. Wilcox is V.P. of Business Development and a Real Estate Analyst Grand Canyon Title.  Grand Canyon Title is a subsidiary of Fidelity National Financial (FNF).  FNF is ranked 375 on the list of Fortune 500 Companies.  Fletcher may be reached at fwilcox@gcta.com or 602.648.1230.

Fletcher is on the Board of Directors at the Scottsdale Association of REALTORS® (SAAR). In 2020 he started an Influencer Marketing series for real estate agents at SAAR. He is V.P. of Networking for the Arizona Mortgage Lenders Association. He is a member of the Arizona State Escrow Association and the Arizona Association of REALTORS.

Fletcher is the founder of The Wilcox Report. His market analysis on residential real estate in Greater Phoenix has been mentioned in publications such as the Wall Street Journal, MarketWatch, Bloomberg News, HousingWire.com, National Mortgage News, the Arizona Republic, the Phoenix Business Journal and AZ Big Media. He has been a guest speaker on both local and national TV and radio. He served on one of the three Arizona Association of REALTORS® subcommittees which made recommendations for changes to the 2017 AAR Residential Resale Real Estate Purchase Contract.  He teaches residential contract law to both real estate agents and escrow officers.

Be one of the first to see the August 2020 Residential Results for Greater Phoenix! Topics: Owning and renting become more expensive in August; What will September numbers look like? What is the estimated months of supply? Special report on Fountain Hills, AZ. It will be a zoom meeting. To save your spot contact Lorri Phillips at Lorri.Phillips@gcta.com

Join me for the Selling Luxury Homes Seminar August 28 from 9:00 a.m. to 12:30 p.m. Sponsored by the Arizona School of Real Estate. Attendees will obtain three renewal hours of Agency.

I will interview the top luxury agents in Arizona. Brendan Mann the representative for the Ritz-Carlton Residences will have a significant announcement regarding the Estate Homes, which will be an exclusive for agents attending this seminar. This year one of the panelists closed a $17,500,000 home and another this year has the record AZ sold price at $19,500,00!

Robert Oglesby, President, Founder AppraisalTek will explain what agents must know about appraisals and the uniqueness of pricing luxury homes. You will hear from Joan Levinson, Frank Aazami, Chris Karas and Allison Cahill!  

To register https://www.asreb.com/programs/seminars/?utm_campaign=ASREBALL20%20AZ%20Journal&utm_medium=email&_hsmi=92948360&_hsenc=p2ANqtz-9SV28rdDVxh_2i0QRqcz5mO76y9ZcCGWmrpwjww3jFVldUMSXg7jfpfj6jg-i6_NDXuZKpKjM9htqP2AFtd1KRUBj-Lg&utm_content=92948360&utm_source=hs_email

Fletcher R. Wilcox is V.P. of Business Development and a Real Estate Analyst Grand Canyon Title.  Grand Canyon Title is a subsidiary of Fidelity National Financial (FNF).  FNF is ranked 375 on the list of Fortune 500 Companies.  Fletcher may be reached at fwilcox@gcta.com or 602.648.1230.

Fletcher is on the Board of Directors at the Scottsdale Association of REALTORS® (SAAR). In 2020 he started an Influencer Marketing series for real estate agents at SAAR. He is V.P. of Networking for the Arizona Mortgage Lenders Association. He is a member of the Arizona State Escrow Association and the Arizona Association of REALTORS.

Fletcher is the founder of The Wilcox Report. His market analysis on residential real estate in Greater Phoenix has been mentioned in publications such as the Wall Street Journal, MarketWatch, Bloomberg News, HousingWire.com, National Mortgage News, the Arizona Republic, the Phoenix Business Journal and AZ Big Media. He has been a guest speaker on both local and national TV and radio. He served on one of the three Arizona Association of REALTORS® subcommittees which made recommendations for changes to the 2017 AAR Residential Resale Real Estate Purchase Contract.  He teaches residential contract law to both real estate agents and escrow officers.

On August 25, at 10:00 a.m. via Zoom I will discuss how residential market trends are influencing contract writing. And will have recent scenarios on closing trends every listing agent and buyer agent must know. My partners for this event are Shannon Ellsworth Goldberg @AtMyTitleGal, and bliss Realty & Investments. No CE credit. Register https://lnkd.in/ganZHii

August 6, 4:30 to 5:00 p.m. Scottsdale Area Association of REALTORS presents “What Does Back to School Look Like?” Patty Beckman Governing Board Vice President & Scott Menzel Superintendent Scottsdale Unified School District will both speak on this topic. I will give a market update on July residential sales. Wait till you see the July numbers! And there will be a cocktail tutorial with the Grossman’s! REGISTER HERE: https://lnkd.in/gnVmXPY

Results for July 2020

July reached a new high for what buyers were willing to pay for a single family resale home in Greater Phoenix.  The July median purchase price was $350,000.  This breaks the previous record, set in the previous month.  In June it was $340,000, ten thousand or three percent less than in July.  The July 2020 median purchase price was $40,000 higher than in July 2019 when it was $310,000.  

July sales of single family resale homes were higher this month than any other month thus far into 2020.  There were 7,277 sales.  This is the first time this year that there were over 7,000 in a month.   

The median list price in July for a single family resale home also reached a new high.  It ended at $359,900 slightly higher than in June when it was $359,000.  The median list price had fallen in April of this year to $339,900 after some sellers lowered their sale prices during the coronavirus public restrictions.  Since April it is back up $20,000.  The July 2020 median list price was $44,900 higher than in July 2019 when it was $315,000.      

New monthly listings saw a surge July.  More sellers put their homes for sale on the market in July than in any of the previous three months.  July new monthly listings of single family resale homes were 6,691.  This is eight percent or 509 more new listings in July than in June.  Historically the number of new monthly listings is always lower in July than in June.  But, of course in today’s marketplace what is historic patterns may not be relevant.      

Estimated Months of Supply is low for all prices ranges under $1,500,000.  It is extremely low for home under $700,000 with less than a one month supply.    

How single family resale homes were purchased had one significant change in July 2020 compared to July 2019.  Cash purchases in July 2020 were eleven percent compared to seventeen percent in July 2019.  Conventional and jumbo loan purchases were about breakeven. With sixty-two percent in July 2020 compared to sixty-one percent in July 2019.  FHA purchases in July 2020 were fifteen percent compared to thirteen percent in July 2019.  Finally VA purchases were seven percent in July 2020 and eight percent in July 2019.    

Comparing mortgage payments over time.  Table – compares a principle and interest payment for four time periods: July 2020, July 2019, July 2018 and July 2006.  These are the assumptions for the comparison: the median purchase price in that month and year with a ten percent down payment.  The mortgage rate is what the thirty-year fixed mortgage was the month before the closing according to Freddie Mac.  The comparison shows a principle and interest payment of $1,495 in July 2020 compared to $1,423 in July 2019.  So the July 2020 payment is seventy-two more dollars than in July 2019.  Of course with a ten percent down payment a borrower in 2020 would need four thousand more dollars in down payment funds than July 2019.  The interest rate in July 2020 was 3.16% compared to 3.80% in July 2019.  While the price to own has gone up seventy-two dollars more in a principal and interest payment under this scenario, remember the purchase price went up $40,000 in one year.  When comparing a principal and interest payment in July 2020 to July 2006, which was the year prices peaked before the great real estate recession, we find a noteworthy comparison.  The principle and interest payment in July 2006 is $1,734.  This is $236 more dollars than in July 2020.  Even though the median purchase price in July 2020 is $70,000 higher than in July 2006.  Why then is the principle and interest payment so much lower in July 2020 than July 2006?  The difference is that the thirty-year fixed mortgage rate was 6.68% in July 2006 compared to 3.16% in July 2020.       

Conclusion

The increase of more sellers putting their homes on the market in July is a good thing.  It will add to sales.  Overall it will do very little to change the estimated months of supply, since supply is already so low and demand is so strong.  I don’t ever recall seeing the inventory of single family resale homes this low.  Low mortgage rates are keeping many buyers in the home buying market even with whooping increases in purchase prices.  At the same time low rates make more buyers, more buyers put pressure on prices.   

The Greater Phoenix residential market of single family resale homes is a bright spot in our economy.  This specific market is one of the best performing in the country – if not the best.  At this time, expect this market to continue its current path for the rest of the year.

The Greater Phoenix residential market in this report is defined as Maricopa County.  The information for this report was compiled from the Arizona Regional Multiple Listing Services, Inc.

Fletcher R. Wilcox is V.P. of Business Development and a Real Estate Analyst Grand Canyon Title.  Grand Canyon Title is a subsidiary of Fidelity National Financial (FNF).  FNF is ranked 375 on the list of Fortune 500 Companies.  Fletcher may be reached at fwilcox@gcta.com or 602.648.1230.

Fletcher is on the Board of Directors at the Scottsdale Association of REALTORS® (SAAR). In 2020 he started an Influencer Marketing series for real estate agents at SAAR. He is V.P. of Networking for the Arizona Mortgage Lenders Association. He is a member of the Arizona State Escrow Association and the Arizona Association of REALTORS.

Fletcher is the founder of The Wilcox Report. His market analysis on residential real estate in Greater Phoenix has been mentioned in publications such as the Wall Street Journal, MarketWatch, Bloomberg News, HousingWire.com, National Mortgage News, the Arizona Republic, the Phoenix Business Journal and AZ Big Media. He has been a guest speaker on both local and national TV and radio. He served on one of the three Arizona Association of REALTORS® subcommittees which made recommendations for changes to the 2017 AAR Residential Resale Real Estate Purchase Contract.  He teaches residential contract law to both real estate agents and escrow officers.

Maricopa County Nearly Doubles Existing-Home Sales in U.S. – Scottsdale Area Association of REALTORS® Published July 24, 2020.

Sometimes headlines like “Existing-Home Sales Climb Record 20.7% in June” make Fletcher Wilcox laugh. This was one of those times.

Existing-home sales rebounded at a record pace in June, following three consecutive months of sales declines, the National Association of REALTORS® reported.

Wilcox, a VP at Grand Canyon Title Agency, recently moderated his third Influencer Marketing series for Scottsdale REALTORS® and as usual, he led with local market trends.

“Maricopa County was way above the national average with 40.6% — nearly twice as good,” he smiled over Zoom. “Which is why you need to compare local data against national stats — because we may be doing better, or worse, than national numbers.”

Maricopa County even outdid NAR’s regional breakdown which showed existing-home sales in the West¹ increased 31.9% in June, with a Median price of $432.6K compared to our more affordable $340K.

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¹NAR uses the U.S. Census Regions (West = AZ, CA, CO, ID, MT, NM, NV, OR, UT, WA, WY)

Fletcher R. Wilcox is V.P. of Business Development and a Real Estate Analyst Grand Canyon Title.  Grand Canyon Title is a subsidiary of Fidelity National Financial (FNF).  FNF is ranked 375 on the list of Fortune 500 Companies.  Fletcher may be reached at fwilcox@gcta.com or 602.648.1230.

Fletcher is on the Board of Directors at the Scottsdale Association of REALTORS® (SAAR). In 2020 he started an Influencer Marketing series for real estate agents at SAAR. He is V.P. of Networking for the Arizona Mortgage Lenders Association. He is a member of the Arizona State Escrow Association and the Arizona Association of REALTORS.

Fletcher is the founder of The Wilcox Report. His market analysis on residential real estate in Greater Phoenix has been mentioned in publications such as the Wall Street Journal, MarketWatch, Bloomberg News, HousingWire.com, National Mortgage News, the Arizona Republic, the Phoenix Business Journal and AZ Big Media. He has been a guest speaker on both local and national TV and radio. He served on one of the three Arizona Association of REALTORS® subcommittees which made recommendations for changes to the 2017 AAR Residential Resale Real Estate Purchase Contract.  He teaches residential contract law to both real estate agents and escrow officers.