Greater Phoenix Real Estate Trends, Insight and Explanation
Be one of the first to see the August 2020 Residential Results for Greater Phoenix! Topics: Owning and renting become more expensive in August; What will September numbers look like? What is the estimated months of supply? Special report on Fountain Hills, AZ. It will be a zoom meeting. To save your spot contact Lorri Phillips at Lorri.Phillips@gcta.com
Join me for the Selling Luxury Homes Seminar August 28 from 9:00 a.m. to 12:30 p.m. Sponsored by the Arizona School of Real Estate. Attendees will obtain three renewal hours of Agency.
I will interview the top luxury agents in Arizona. Brendan Mann the representative for the Ritz-Carlton Residences will have a significant announcement regarding the Estate Homes, which will be an exclusive for agents attending this seminar. This year one of the panelists closed a $17,500,000 home and another this year has the record AZ sold price at $19,500,00!
Robert Oglesby, President, Founder AppraisalTek will explain what agents must know about appraisals and the uniqueness of pricing luxury homes. You will hear from Joan Levinson, Frank Aazami, Chris Karas and Allison Cahill!
Fletcher R. Wilcox is V.P. of Business Development and a Real Estate Analyst Grand Canyon Title. Grand Canyon Title is a subsidiary of Fidelity National Financial (FNF). FNF is ranked 375 on the list of Fortune 500 Companies. Fletcher may be reached at fwilcox@gcta.com or 602.648.1230.
Fletcher is on the Board of Directors at the Scottsdale Association of REALTORS® (SAAR). In 2020 he started an Influencer Marketing series for real estate agents at SAAR. He is V.P. of Networking for the Arizona Mortgage Lenders Association. He is a member of the Arizona State Escrow Association and the Arizona Association of REALTORS.
Fletcher is the founder of The Wilcox Report. His market analysis on residential real estate in Greater Phoenix has been mentioned in publications such as the Wall Street Journal, MarketWatch, Bloomberg News, HousingWire.com, National Mortgage News, the Arizona Republic, the Phoenix Business Journal and AZ Big Media. He has been a guest speaker on both local and national TV and radio. He served on one of the three Arizona Association of REALTORS® subcommittees which made recommendations for changes to the 2017 AAR Residential Resale Real Estate Purchase Contract. He teaches residential contract law to both real estate agents and escrow officers.
On August 25, at 10:00 a.m. via Zoom I will discuss how residential market trends are influencing contract writing. And will have recent scenarios on closing trends every listing agent and buyer agent must know. My partners for this event are Shannon Ellsworth Goldberg @AtMyTitleGal, and bliss Realty & Investments. No CE credit. Register https://lnkd.in/ganZHii
August 6, 4:30 to 5:00 p.m. Scottsdale Area Association of REALTORS presents “What Does Back to School Look Like?” Patty Beckman Governing Board Vice President & Scott Menzel Superintendent Scottsdale Unified School District will both speak on this topic. I will give a market update on July residential sales. Wait till you see the July numbers! And there will be a cocktail tutorial with the Grossman’s! REGISTER HERE: https://lnkd.in/gnVmXPY
Results for July 2020
July reached a new high for what buyers were willing to pay for a single family resale home in Greater Phoenix. The July median purchase price was $350,000. This breaks the previous record, set in the previous month. In June it was $340,000, ten thousand or three percent less than in July. The July 2020 median purchase price was $40,000 higher than in July 2019 when it was $310,000.
July sales of single family resale homes were higher this month than any other month thus far into 2020. There were 7,277 sales. This is the first time this year that there were over 7,000 in a month.
The median list price in July for a single family resale home also reached a new high. It ended at $359,900 slightly higher than in June when it was $359,000. The median list price had fallen in April of this year to $339,900 after some sellers lowered their sale prices during the coronavirus public restrictions. Since April it is back up $20,000. The July 2020 median list price was $44,900 higher than in July 2019 when it was $315,000.
New monthly listings saw a surge July. More sellers put their homes for sale on the market in July than in any of the previous three months. July new monthly listings of single family resale homes were 6,691. This is eight percent or 509 more new listings in July than in June. Historically the number of new monthly listings is always lower in July than in June. But, of course in today’s marketplace what is historic patterns may not be relevant.
Estimated Months of Supply is low for all prices ranges under $1,500,000. It is extremely low for home under $700,000 with less than a one month supply.
How single family resale homes were purchased had one significant change in July 2020 compared to July 2019. Cash purchases in July 2020 were eleven percent compared to seventeen percent in July 2019. Conventional and jumbo loan purchases were about breakeven. With sixty-two percent in July 2020 compared to sixty-one percent in July 2019. FHA purchases in July 2020 were fifteen percent compared to thirteen percent in July 2019. Finally VA purchases were seven percent in July 2020 and eight percent in July 2019.
Comparing mortgage payments over time. Table – compares a principle and interest payment for four time periods: July 2020, July 2019, July 2018 and July 2006. These are the assumptions for the comparison: the median purchase price in that month and year with a ten percent down payment. The mortgage rate is what the thirty-year fixed mortgage was the month before the closing according to Freddie Mac. The comparison shows a principle and interest payment of $1,495 in July 2020 compared to $1,423 in July 2019. So the July 2020 payment is seventy-two more dollars than in July 2019. Of course with a ten percent down payment a borrower in 2020 would need four thousand more dollars in down payment funds than July 2019. The interest rate in July 2020 was 3.16% compared to 3.80% in July 2019. While the price to own has gone up seventy-two dollars more in a principal and interest payment under this scenario, remember the purchase price went up $40,000 in one year. When comparing a principal and interest payment in July 2020 to July 2006, which was the year prices peaked before the great real estate recession, we find a noteworthy comparison. The principle and interest payment in July 2006 is $1,734. This is $236 more dollars than in July 2020. Even though the median purchase price in July 2020 is $70,000 higher than in July 2006. Why then is the principle and interest payment so much lower in July 2020 than July 2006? The difference is that the thirty-year fixed mortgage rate was 6.68% in July 2006 compared to 3.16% in July 2020.
Conclusion
The increase of more sellers putting their homes on the market in July is a good thing. It will add to sales. Overall it will do very little to change the estimated months of supply, since supply is already so low and demand is so strong. I don’t ever recall seeing the inventory of single family resale homes this low. Low mortgage rates are keeping many buyers in the home buying market even with whooping increases in purchase prices. At the same time low rates make more buyers, more buyers put pressure on prices.
The Greater Phoenix residential market of single family resale homes is a bright spot in our economy. This specific market is one of the best performing in the country – if not the best. At this time, expect this market to continue its current path for the rest of the year.
The Greater Phoenix residential market in this report is defined as Maricopa County. The information for this report was compiled from the Arizona Regional Multiple Listing Services, Inc.
Fletcher R. Wilcox is V.P. of Business Development and a Real Estate Analyst Grand Canyon Title. Grand Canyon Title is a subsidiary of Fidelity National Financial (FNF). FNF is ranked 375 on the list of Fortune 500 Companies. Fletcher may be reached at fwilcox@gcta.com or 602.648.1230.
Fletcher is on the Board of Directors at the Scottsdale Association of REALTORS® (SAAR). In 2020 he started an Influencer Marketing series for real estate agents at SAAR. He is V.P. of Networking for the Arizona Mortgage Lenders Association. He is a member of the Arizona State Escrow Association and the Arizona Association of REALTORS.
Fletcher is the founder of The Wilcox Report. His market analysis on residential real estate in Greater Phoenix has been mentioned in publications such as the Wall Street Journal, MarketWatch, Bloomberg News, HousingWire.com, National Mortgage News, the Arizona Republic, the Phoenix Business Journal and AZ Big Media. He has been a guest speaker on both local and national TV and radio. He served on one of the three Arizona Association of REALTORS® subcommittees which made recommendations for changes to the 2017 AAR Residential Resale Real Estate Purchase Contract. He teaches residential contract law to both real estate agents and escrow officers.
Maricopa County Nearly Doubles Existing-Home Sales in U.S. – Scottsdale Area Association of REALTORS® Published July 24, 2020.
Sometimes headlines like “Existing-Home Sales Climb Record 20.7% in June” make Fletcher Wilcox laugh. This was one of those times.
Existing-home sales rebounded at a record pace in June, following three consecutive months of sales declines, the National Association of REALTORS® reported.
Wilcox, a VP at Grand Canyon Title Agency, recently moderated his third Influencer Marketing series for Scottsdale REALTORS® and as usual, he led with local market trends.
“Maricopa County was way above the national average with 40.6% — nearly twice as good,” he smiled over Zoom. “Which is why you need to compare local data against national stats — because we may be doing better, or worse, than national numbers.”
Maricopa County even outdid NAR’s regional breakdown which showed existing-home sales in the West1 increased 31.9% in June, with a Median price of $432.6K compared to our more affordable $340K.
1NAR uses the U.S. Census Regions (West = AZ, CA, CO, ID, MT, NM, NV, OR, UT, WA, WY)
Fletcher R. Wilcox is V.P. of Business Development and a Real Estate Analyst Grand Canyon Title. Grand Canyon Title is a subsidiary of Fidelity National Financial (FNF). FNF is ranked 375 on the list of Fortune 500 Companies. Fletcher may be reached at fwilcox@gcta.com or 602.648.1230.
Fletcher is on the Board of Directors at the Scottsdale Association of REALTORS® (SAAR). In 2020 he started an Influencer Marketing series for real estate agents at SAAR. He is V.P. of Networking for the Arizona Mortgage Lenders Association. He is a member of the Arizona State Escrow Association and the Arizona Association of REALTORS.
Fletcher is the founder of The Wilcox Report. His market analysis on residential real estate in Greater Phoenix has been mentioned in publications such as the Wall Street Journal, MarketWatch, Bloomberg News, HousingWire.com, National Mortgage News, the Arizona Republic, the Phoenix Business Journal and AZ Big Media. He has been a guest speaker on both local and national TV and radio. He served on one of the three Arizona Association of REALTORS® subcommittees which made recommendations for changes to the 2017 AAR Residential Resale Real Estate Purchase Contract. He teaches residential contract law to both real estate agents and escrow officers.
This seminar will equip real estate agents with the ability to educate and assist buyer and sellers.
Join me for GREATER PHOENIX: GROWTH, IMPACTS, TRENDS. Friday, July 31, 9:00 am to 12:30 pm. Three hours general CE credit. Look at the action-packed line-up of speakers! Topics include economic growth in Maricopa and Pinal Counties and what the City of Phoenix is doing to retain business during COVID; effect of Loops 202 & 303 on new home growth; are we running out of water? Will the land Bill Gates bought have enough water? Where new home closings will be in October and November; the effect of the new trade deal USMCA with Canada & Mexico. Nikola Motor Co. and Lucid Motors Inc. have plans to locate in Pinal County with an impact of 3,000 high-tech jobs. Where to find an affordable new home. Much more. Sponsored by the Arizona School of Real Estate & Business. Register https://bit.ly/32Qk6ou#greater
Fletcher R. Wilcox is V.P. of Business Development and a Real Estate Analyst Grand Canyon Title. Grand Canyon Title is a subsidiary of Fidelity National Financial (FNF). FNF is ranked 375 on the list of Fortune 500 Companies. Fletcher may be reached at fwilcox@gcta.com or 602.648.1230.
Fletcher is on the Board of Directors at the Scottsdale Association of REALTORS® (SAAR). In 2020 he started an Influencer Marketing series for real estate agents at SAAR. He is V.P. of Networking for the Arizona Mortgage Lenders Association. He is a member of the Arizona State Escrow Association and the Arizona Association of REALTORS.
Fletcher is the founder of The Wilcox Report. His market analysis on residential real estate in Greater Phoenix has been mentioned in publications such as the Wall Street Journal, MarketWatch, Bloomberg News, HousingWire.com, National Mortgage News, the Arizona Republic, the Phoenix Business Journal and AZ Big Media. He has been a guest speaker on both local and national TV and radio. He served on one of the three Arizona Association of REALTORS® subcommittees which made recommendations for changes to the 2017 AAR Residential Resale Real Estate Purchase Contract. He teaches residential contract law to both real estate agents and escrow officers.
Thursday, July 23 11:00 a.m. to 12:30 p.m.
Register: https://www.scottsdalerealtors.org/event/influencer-marketing-sharing-data/
THE LINEUP
• Communication Tips by Real Estate Coach & Consultant Dr. Lee Davenport
• How to be Your Own Filmmaker by Rafi Isaac, South Mountain Films tips
• It is all about Content, Content, Content by Stephen Garner, HUB Media
• What is Up and What is Down in Residential Sales? By Fletcher Wilcox How panelists would share that same data with clients or potential clients •
Fletcher R. Wilcox is V.P. of Business Development and a Real Estate Analyst Grand Canyon Title. Grand Canyon Title is a subsidiary of Fidelity National Financial (FNF). FNF is ranked 375 on the list of Fortune 500 Companies. Fletcher may be reached at fwilcox@gcta.com or 602.648.1230.
Fletcher is on the Board of Directors at the Scottsdale Association of REALTORS® (SAAR). In 2020 he started an Influencer Marketing series for real estate agents at SAAR. He is V.P. of Networking for the Arizona Mortgage Lenders Association. He is a member of the Arizona State Escrow Association and the Arizona Association of REALTORS.
Fletcher is the founder of The Wilcox Report. His market analysis on residential real estate in Greater Phoenix has been mentioned in publications such as the Wall Street Journal, MarketWatch, Bloomberg News, HousingWire.com, National Mortgage News, the Arizona Republic, the Phoenix Business Journal and AZ Big Media. He has been a guest speaker on both local and national TV and radio. He served on one of the three Arizona Association of REALTORS® subcommittees which made recommendations for changes to the 2017 AAR Residential Resale Real Estate Purchase Contract. He teaches residential contract law to both real estate agents and escrow officers.
By Fletcher Wilcox | VP, Grand Canyon Title
On July 16, the Arizona Commerce Authority released its June 2020 employment numbers for Maricopa County. The report showed that after an avalanche of losses, jobs are starting to rebound.
Between February and April, the number of people employed in Maricopa County dropped by 207,000. This drove the number of people with jobs in April down to 1,974,800. The last time we had less than 2M people employed in a given month was July 2018.
Since April, jobs have been rebounding here. This most recent jobs report shows that the number of people employed in Maricopa County is now back over 2M. June gained 14,000 jobs over May, and May gained 30,300 jobs over April.
Although we still have a way to go, jobs have bounced back by 44,300 (21.4%).
This rebound and record-low mortgage rates emphasize that it’s time to ramp up your real estate marketing, but what kind?
Recently, a survey was sent to people who attended my Influencer Marketing sessions from earlier this year. One of the questions asked was: What are the two areas of marketing to Buyers and Sellers in which you would like to improve your skills?
The leading responses were: Video production and Social Media. We will address both during Influencer 3: Sharing Data on Thursday, July 23 from 11:30 a.m. to 1 p.m.
If building an online presence is a new idea or you find video production intimidating, join us to learn ways to dominate social media and take advantage of video tips and tricks.
Register NOW for Influencer 3: Sharing Data and be sure to bring your questions!
Our panel of experts features Lee Davenport (Learn with Dr. Lee), Stephen Garner (HUB Media Co.) and Rafi Isaac (South Mountain Films). Two of them are REALTORS® and one has a title company background, so they know this industry.
In 90 minutes’ time, I will give you the latest market trends and the four of us will explain the best data-sharing techniques to make marketing messages more memorable.
Fletcher R. Wilcox is V.P. of Business Development and a Real Estate Analyst Grand Canyon Title. Grand Canyon Title is a subsidiary of Fidelity National Financial (FNF). FNF is ranked 375 on the list of Fortune 500 Companies. Fletcher may be reached at fwilcox@gcta.com or 602.648.1230.
Fletcher is on the Board of Directors at the Scottsdale Association of REALTORS® (SAAR). In 2020 he started an Influencer Marketing series for real estate agents at SAAR. He is V.P. of Networking for the Arizona Mortgage Lenders Association. He is a member of the Arizona State Escrow Association and the Arizona Association of REALTORS.
Fletcher is the founder of The Wilcox Report. His market analysis on residential real estate in Greater Phoenix has been mentioned in publications such as the Wall Street Journal, MarketWatch, Bloomberg News, HousingWire.com, National Mortgage News, the Arizona Republic, the Phoenix Business Journal and AZ Big Media. He has been a guest speaker on both local and national TV and radio. He served on one of the three Arizona Association of REALTORS® subcommittees which made recommendations for changes to the 2017 AAR Residential Resale Real Estate Purchase Contract. He teaches residential contract law to both real estate agents and escrow officers.
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