Phoenix Real Estate: Explaining President Obama’s plan to stimulate home buyers with FHA Loans

January 9, 2015 By

Today, January 8, the President visited my alma mater, Central High School in Phoenix, Arizona.  He announced a plan to increase homeownership.  The Federal Housing Administration will change the FHA annual mortgage premium from 1.35% to .85%.  So, a future FHA mortgage payment will be cut by .5% or ½%.

Until FHA puts the change in writing, the annual mortgage premium stays at 1.35%.

The annual mortgage premium is mortgage insurance that a borrower pays for obtaining an FHA insured loan. The premiums are used as capital reserves for outstanding FHA mortgage guarantees.  There is also a one-time mortgage insurance fee a borrower pays when obtaining an FHA loan.  That fee stays the same.

The monthly saving for most borrowers purchasing a single family home in the Phoenix area would be $70 per month.

According to data obtained through the Arizona Multiple Listing Services, Inc., the median FHA mortgage amount for purchasing a single family home in December 2014 in Greater Phoenix was $168,000.  Below is table comparing a FHA loan of $168,000 with the old and new mortgage premiums.

I estimate this change will increase overall single family sales by 2%-5%.  Most likely at the lower end of this range.  This estimate assumes the change applies not only to first time homebuyers, but also boomerang buyers.

The change benefits buyers only in certain price ranges. The maximum FHA loan amount is $271,050 in Maricopa County.

Today’s announcement will increase buyer activity.  Media attention on the President’s plan will cause some potential buyers to contact real estate agents and lenders to find out more information.  This is a good thing.

This move most likely will stimulate the refinance market more than it does the  purchase market.  This is why: If a borrower’s current FHA interest rate is 4.0% and their monthly premium is 1.35% they are paying about 5.35% interest on their loan. (It does not quite work out to the aforementioned but is close enough for an example).  If a borrower refinances to an FHA interest rate of 3.5% and now their mortgage insurance premium is .85% they are now paying 4.35% on their loan or 1% less. Paying 1% less will encourage a mini FHA refinance boom.

Today’s cut of .50% in the annual premium will be muted if the mortgage interest rate goes up .50%.

There may be some opposition to today’s announcement. There was a reason for the premium to be 1.35%.   As mentioned earlier these premiums are used as capital reserves for outstanding FHA mortgage guarantees.

The last time the President was in Phoenix, August 2013, I was on channel 12 Brahm Resnick’s show Sunday Square Off  discussing the President and the Phoenix real estate recovery.

Loan amount $168,000 $168,000 Monthly saving Yearly saving
Annual mortgage insurance premium 1.35% .85%
Annual amount $2,268 $1,428
Monthly payment (annual amount divided by 12) $189 $119 $70 $840

(12 months x $70)

 

         
     
     
         

 
Filed Under: Buyer or seller market, FHA loans, Fletcher Wilcox, Gilbert, grand canyon title agency, home loans, Mesa, Mortgage Purchases, Paradise Valley real estate, Phoenix real estate, Phoenix real estate sales, real estate sales, Scottsdale real estate, The Wilcox Report, Uncategorized, VA mortgages

Gilbert Real Estate: Is it a Buyer Or Seller Market? An interview with Amy Golba. Also December 2014 real estate results for Gilbert, Mesa and Chandler.

January 5, 2015 By

In this edition of TheWilcoxReport.com I discuss with Amy Golba the state of real estate market in the Southeast Valley of Greater Phoenix and specifically Gilbert, Arizona.  Amy is the owner and designated broker of Century 21 Platinum Real Estate.  Amy and her agents spend a lot of time in the Southeast Valley markets of Gilbert, Mesa, Chandler and Ahwatukee.  Amy is also a principal in the Golba Group, which manages over a thousand single family property rentals.    This interview was conducted in November 2014.

Year-to-Year Comparison of Existing Single Family Sales for the month of December

Below the video is a comparison of December 2014 to December 2013 existing single family homes sales for Gilbert, Mesa, and Chandler.  Median sale prices were up in all three cities this December over last December.  Gilbert shined with 23% more sales, while Chandler sales were about the same.  Mesa sales were up 6%. The data is from the Arizona Regional Multiple Listing Services, Inc.

 

Sales Sales Median Sale Price
City Month 2013 2014 Change Change 2013 2014 Change Change
Gilbert December 306 377 71 23.2% $254,375 $256,000 $1,625 0.6%
Mesa December 466 495 29 6.2% $187,000 $192,000 $5,000 2.7%
Chandler December 292 290 -2 -0.7% $245,000 $258,000 $13,000 5.3%
Filed Under: Arizona Real Estate Market, Buyer or seller market, Chandler, Fletcher Wilcox, Gilbert, grand canyon title agency, Greater Phoenix Real Estate, Homes for Sale, Listing inventory, Mesa, Phoenix real estate, Phoenix real estate sales, real estate sales, The Wilcox Report, Uncategorized Tagged With: , ,

Phoenix Real Estate: Sales, Sales Volume, Mortgages up in October 2014. Distressed Properties Down

December 3, 2014 By

Below are charts and graphs from the October 2014 TheWilcoxReport.com

  • October 2014 existing sales slightly higher than October 2013.
  • October 2014 sales volume $42,095,372 higher than October 2013.
  • October 2014 Distressed Property Index at 1,483 compared to 14,889 in October 2009.
  • October 2014 new monthly listings were 1,016 less than October 2013.

In this report we compare performance for sales, sales volume, cash purchases, mortgage purchases, and new monthly listings. The comparisons are year-over-year, comparing a time period in 2014 to the same time period in 2013. Year-over-year comparisons are an effective way to measure performance, highlight differences, and negates the effect of seasonality.

Download (DOCX, 120KB)

Download (DOCX, 28KB)

 

Filed Under: Arizona Real Estate Market, Buyer or seller market, cash purchases, conventional loans, FHA and VA mortgages purchases, FHA loans, Fletcher Wilcox, grand canyon title agency, Greater Phoenix Real Estate, home loans, Listing inventory, Mortgage Purchases, Paradise Valley real estate, Phoenix real estate, Phoenix real estate sales, real estate sales, Scottsdale luxury market, Scottsdale luxury real estate, Scottsdale real estate, The Wilcox Report, VA loans, VA mortgages

Phoenix Real Estate: Were September 2014 sales results a market quip or trend?

October 27, 2014 By

The September Surprise

September 2014 was best month year-over-year for existing single family sales, sales volume, and mortgage purchases

September brought some good news for sales, sales volume, and mortgage purchases. The existing single family housing market gained a little momentum. The information in this report analyzes existing single family home sales in Phoenix. The use of the term Phoenix is a general term for those cities located in Maricopa County. The information was compiled from the Arizona Regional Multiple Listing Service, Inc. (ARMLS).

To see full report go to https://gcta.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/10/September2014ExisitingHomeSalesforPhoenix-.pdf

In this report we compare performance for sales, sales volume, cash purchases, mortgage purchases, total active listings, new monthly listings and estimated months of supply. Most of the comparisons are year-over-year, comparing a time period in 2014 to the same time period in 2013. Year-over-year comparisons are an effective way to measure performance, highlight differences, and negates the effect of seasonality.  Are you ready?

Download (DOCX, 23KB)

Sales of Existing Single Family Homes. September 2014, was the first month this year in which there were more sales compared to the same month of last year. Well, the number of sales was small. There were 20 more sales. While 20 may not be much, it is a lot better than May 2014, when there were 1,360 less sales than the previous May. See Table One, page six.

Sales Volume. Better than the slight increase in September sales was a much larger increase in sales volume. Home appreciation over the last year, and the slight increase in sales made September the first month this year that the total dollar volume of sales was higher than for the same month of the previous year. Total sales volume in September 2014 was up 4% or $48,000,000 more than September 2014. In May 2014, the 1,360 less sales resulted in $310,000,000 less in sales volume. See Table Two, page six. Total sales volume is determined by adding up the number sales and their sale prices. The average (mean) sales price in September 2014 was $274,019 or $9,316 higher than September 2013. The median sales price this September was $216,900 or $5,000 higher than last September.  See Table Three, page seven.

Cash Purchases and Mortgage Purchases. Purchases with cash continues to decline. They are down every month year-over-year. There were 968 in August and 959 in September. The last month that there were less than 1,000 monthly cash purchases was almost six years ago, in November 2008, when there were 894 cash purchases.

Less cash purchases should be no surprise. Investors make up the majority of cash purchases. Investors want to buy cheap. Most cheap sales are distressed sales. The number of distressed properties for sale is down considerable from the flood a few years ago. In the month of September 2010, 14,301 properties fit into one of these four distressed categories: foreclosure start, auctioned property, lender owned sale or short sale. In September 2014, only 1,535 or 12,766 less properties than September 2010 were in one of these four categories.

In the first quarter of 2014, sales were not only down because of less cash purchases, but also because there were less mortgage purchases. There were 2,207 less cash purchases, 354 less conventional loan purchases, 197 less FHA loan purchases, but 119 more VA loan purchases in the first quarter of 2014. See Table Seven, page ten.

Thus, the media reports of a flamed out Phoenix real estate recovery. But something changed. The mortgage purchase market gained vigor. September 2014, was the fourth consecutive month year-over-year there were more mortgage purchases. For the months June through September, there were 719 more FHA purchases, 303 more VA purchases, 56 more conventional loan purchases, while there were 2,807 less cash purchases. See Table Eight, page 10.

Conclusion and Prediction

When segmenting the single family market into cash versus mortgage purchases, it should be no surprise that cash purchases are decreasing and mortgage purchases increasing. As the residential market recovers, there will be less foreclosures and short sales available for cash investors to buy. And as the number of jobs, population and eligible boomerang buyers continues to increase, mortgage purchases should increase. While job growth and population growth are slower than hoped for, they are still positive. As to boomerang buyers, their numbers increase every day. Every day more of them have met the FHA three year wait period to buy again after a foreclosure or short sale.

So, were this September’s year-over-year increase in sales, total sales volume and mortgage purchases a quip or trend?

Table Seven year-over-year results for June through May shows that the number of conventional loans purchases about even, but FHA loan purchases up 16% and VA purchases up 4%. Early October 2014 numbers support sales at the same pace as October 2013. The numbers mirror September results in that they show a year-over-year decrease in cash purchases and an increase in mortgage purchases. The momentum of the mortgage purchase market should make the last quarter of 2014 the best quarter year-over-year in 2014 for home sales and total sales volume. Excluding of course some unforeseen economic event or other crisis.

I go with September 2014 results as part of a positive housing trend and not a quip or blip.

An interview with National Fox Business News Host Gerri Willis on Phoenix real estate.

Gerri Willis of the Willis Report In May 2014, said things may be cooling off in the Phoenix real estate market because cash deals were down. My response to this cooling off and less cash deals is because our market is normalizing. Normalizing in that the market is becoming more of a mortgage purchase market, and less of a cash purchase market because the foreclosure crisis is over.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4WkUe7KhfGU

Filed Under: Arizona Real Estate Market, Buyer or seller market, cash purchases, conventional loans, FHA and VA mortgages purchases, FHA loans, Fletcher Wilcox, grand canyon title agency, Greater Phoenix Real Estate, home loans, Homes for Sale, Listing inventory, Mortgage Purchases, Paradise Valley real estate, Phoenix real estate, Phoenix real estate sales, real estate sales, Scottsdale luxury real estate, Scottsdale real estate, Scottsdale relocation, Scottsdale retirement, The Wilcox Report, Uncategorized, VA loans, VA mortgages Tagged With: , , , , ,

Phoenix Real Estate: Is it a buyer or seller market? Fletcher Wilcox interviews real estate agent Susan Ramsey

October 20, 2014 By


On today’s show I interview Susan Ramsey of Keller Williams. http://www.theramseyteam.com/

She answers the question, “Is it a buyer or seller market?”

Susan has sold and listed residential properties for twenty-three years. She spends much of her time working in Northwest Phoenix, Glendale, Peoria and Sun City.

In answering the question on whether it is a buyer or seller market Susan discusses prices points, property condition, staging, micro markets, how much is a home worth per square foot.

She says what sets her team apart is client care. Her team responds quickly. When she meets with a seller she reviews the property and the property’s competition. In her market analysis she gives the seller or buyer information to them to help them make a logical decision. She will tell a seller or buyer what they need to know not what they want to hear.

Filed Under: Arizona Real Estate Market, Buyer or seller market, FHA and VA mortgages purchases, Fletcher Wilcox, Greater Phoenix Real Estate, Homes for Sale, Listing inventory, Phoenix real estate, Scottsdale real estate, Scottsdale relocation, The Wilcox Report

Scottsdale Real Estate: Retiring or thinking about retirement in Scottsdale. The coming silver tsunami likely to bring many retirees to Scottsdale.

October 6, 2014 By

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DEWEQeaaIjA

Here Comes the Silver Tsunami.

In 2010 there were 40 million people in the U.S. that were sixty-five or older according to the Adminstration on Aging, a division within the U.S. Department of Health and Human Services. This number is projected to grow to 54 million in 2020 and 72 million by 2030. Some of those sixty-five or older will retire. And often what comes with retirement is a move. The move be downsizing into a smaller home with less maintenance and/or moving to a state with a warmer climate such as Scottsdale, Arizona.

CNN Money in 2013 rated Scottsdale as one of the best eight small cities for retirement if you had a nest egg.

Recently, on TheWilcoxReport.com I interviewed Kerri Calidora of Ventana Fine Properties located in Scottsdale. One of her real estate specialties is working with sellers who are retiring or will be, and who want to downsize their home. She has a team of downsizers to help those making this transition. She has ideas on attractively presenting a property and all its features. Also, she is familiar with retirement communities in Scottsdale. She says often when someone is coming up to eighty years of age they may prefer one of Scottsdale’s retirement communities. And as Director of Relocation at Ventana Fine Properties, she helps buyers in finding homes that are relocating to Scottsdale.

Kerri may be contacted at KerriC@VentanaFineProperties.com or 480-236-3087.

Filed Under: Arizona Real Estate Market, Buyer or seller market, Scottsdale listings, Scottsdale luxury market, Scottsdale luxury real estate, Scottsdale real estate, Scottsdale relocation, Scottsdale retirement, The Wilcox Report

Scottsdale Real Estate: Is it a Buyer or Seller Market? Fletcher Wilcox interviews Shawn Shackelton of Ventana Fine Properties

September 4, 2014 By

Shawn Shackelton answers the question “Is the Scottsdale real estate market a buyer market or a seller market? Shawn gives tips if you are a seller thinking of selling your home.  Shawn has been in real estate for seventeen years.  She works at Ventana Fine Properties in Scottsdale.  Before Ventana, she spent ten years working in the upscale luxury community of Silverleaf in Scottsdale.

Below are pictures of two of her Scottsdale luxury home listings.  The first is 9899 E. Buteo Drive, Scottsdale 85255.  This luxury home is 4,949 square feet and priced at $1,950,000.

Download (DOCX, 612KB)

The second is a luxury condo listing located at The Mark in Old Town Scottsdale.  The Mark is located at 6803 E. Main Street, number 2211, Scottsdale 85251  It is 2,444 square feet and is priced at

Download (DOCX, 452KB)

 

 

Filed Under: Arizona Real Estate Market, Buyer or seller market, Fletcher Wilcox, Listing inventory, Phoenix real estate, Scottsdale listings, Scottsdale luxury market, Scottsdale luxury real estate, Scottsdale real estate, The Wilcox Report

VA loans or mortgages grow in importance for Phoenix real estate market: Overall sales are down, but surging are sales with VA loans.

August 26, 2014 By

While the number of sales of single family existing homes in Greater Phoenix have been down every month this year compared to the same month of last year, not so when it comes to sales involving VA loans.  The number of sales in which a buyer financed the purchase with a VA loan or VA mortgage is up every month this year compared to the same month as last year.  See Chart One below.  In fact, VA loans were 7.2% of all sales of single family existing homes for the first half of 2014 in Greater Phoenix.  The percentage of 7.2% has not been higher this century.  In 2013 the percentage was 5.2% and was 4.1% in 2012.  See Chart Two.

The United States Department of Veteran Affairs, shows the veteran population in Arizona at 527,400 as of September 30, 2013.   A veteran may purchases a home with no down payment up to a $417,000 purchase price.  According to the Arizona Regional Multiple Listing Services, Inc. (ARMLS), for the first six months of 2014, there were 2,098 single family existing homes purchased with a VA loan.  Ninety-nine of these sales had purchase prices over $417,000.   The highest purchases price this year with a VA loan was in Scottsdale, Arizona.  The purchase price was $1,000,000.  I spoke with the selling agent Lyn Trayte with Dominic and Co. International Real Estate.  She said the buyer was a retired veteran and the transaction went smoothly.

Demand for VA loans up as other mortgages fall  an article by Catherine Reagor from the Arizona Republic.

If you need a referral for a lender who knows VA loans contact me at FWilcox@gcta.com or 602-648-1230                                                                                

Table One:  Number of Purchases with a VA Loan for Single Family Existing Properties in Greater PhoenixVA loans1

 

2013 2014 Difference
January 209 245 +36
February 257 282 +25
March 321 379 +58
April 317 365 +48
May 348 402 +54
June 319 425 +106
July 359 388 +29

Table Two:  Percentage of Overall Purchases with a VA Loan 

January 1 through June 30 for 2000 through 2014 

VA Loan Percent

Fletcher R. Wilcox

V.P. Business Development, Real Estate Analyst

Grand Canyon Title Agency, Inc.

FWilcox@gcta.com   602-648-1230

Filed Under: Arizona Real Estate Market, FHA and VA mortgages purchases, Greater Phoenix Real Estate, Mortgage Purchases, Phoenix real estate, Scottsdale luxury market, Scottsdale luxury real estate, Scottsdale real estate, The Wilcox Report, VA mortgages

Paradise Valley Real Estate: Video makes Inman News featured story!

August 25, 2014 By

The Power of Video:  Video of Paradise Valley luxury home makes Inman News featured story and shows seller praising listing agent.

On August 15, 2014 Inman news included a video in their featured story 6 tips to get your clients to brag about you.  The seller of a luxury home in Paradise Valley, Arizona sings praises of her listing agent in the video.  Right before the luxury home closed, I contacted the listing agent to see if she and the seller would let me interview them.  They both said yes.   I thought there was a story to be told about the home.  The property sold for $6.8 million and was 16,000 square feet.  The listing agent Victoria Felice used a different video of the property to send to potential long distance buyers.  She credits this video for helping to get the attention of the buyer who turned out to be a local buyer.

The testimonial from the seller gives a powerful boost to the skills and credibility of the real estate agent.  But there is another side of the story not told in this video.  The video was first released about seventeen months ago.  So about a year and a half after the video was released, the video receives national attention in the Inman News story.  So remember, video has a long life.  And long life is especially good when a client is praising you.  Below is link to the video and the Inman News story.

INMAN NEWS, August 15, 2014

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=MjqasY8WS1E

We’ve all heard it said that it’s easier to keep a happy client than to lose an unhappy one. The unfortunate truth is that unhappy people are more likely to spread their ill feelings about something or someone (whether justified or not). Here’s a few excellent ways to get your happy clients to spread the word about you.

Video testimonials — Video is an extremely valuable marketing tool in today’s high-tech world. Ask your clients if they would be willing to give you a video testimonial. Set a time with them and start recording. Put all your testimonials together in one video and post it to YouTube, your website and blog site, and social media. Victoria Felice did an awesome job of creating a testimonial video below. It certainly has the WOW effect!

To read the full article in Inman News by Pamela Cendejas of Second Self Virtual Assistance that was posted on ActiveRain.

http://www.inman.com/next/how-to-get-your-happy-clients-to-spread-the-word-about-you/?utm_source=20140815&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=dailyheadlinesam

Have a great day!

Fletcher R. Wilcox

V.P. Business Development, Real Estate Analyst

Grand Canyon Title Agency, Phoenix, Arizona

FWilcox@gcta.com   602-648-1230

Filed Under: FHA and VA mortgages purchases, Greater Phoenix Real Estate, Homes for Sale, Listing inventory, Mortgage Purchases, Phoenix real estate, The Wilcox Report, Uncategorized

Phoenix Real Estate and Housing Market

August 13, 2014 By

Phoenix Business Journal reporter Mike Sunnucks writes on the Phoenix real estate market based on a recent report I released.  He makes a good point that even though sales are down, also down are foreclosures and other distressed sales.  Two areas that are up which I mentioned in my last report are FHA mortgages, most likely because of boomerang buyers, and VA mortgages, most likely because of the 527,400 veterans in Arizona. Aug 13, 2014, 9:53am MST

Phoenix housing market in tortoise mode, slows across the board

http://www.bizjournals.com/phoenix/blog/business/2014/08/phoenix-housing-market-in-tortoise-mode-slows.html The Phoenix housing market is in tortoise mode, having slowed on pretty much every indicator — good and bad. Foreclosures are down, and overall that’s a good indicator. But so are sales volumes, investor buys, rentals and price increases, according to various indicators. Numbers from Fletcher Wilcox, a vice president for Scottsdale-based Grand Canyon Title Agency, show there were 28,945 Phoenix-area home sales in the first half of 2014. That’s down from 34,175 for the first half of 2013 and the lowest volume since 2008. Cash purchases — which often come from investors — are also at their lowest levels since 2008. From January through July of this year, single-family homes listed for rent and leased are also down from the same time period in 2013, according to Wilcox. The drop in homes for rent could correlate directly to a drop in foreclosures. Wilcox estimates there were 1,700 foreclosures and distressed sales in July. That compares with a whopping 17,770 in July 2009. The foreclosure wave has come to shore, but the post-recession recovery in home prices is also subsiding. Research from Fiserv Case Shiller shows no growth in Phoenix home prices between the first quarters of 2013 and 2014. In addition, the research also expects only 0.9 percent annualized growth when comparing 2012 prices with what’s expected by 2017. Phoenix home prices dropped more than 52 percent during the recession. Nationally, home prices are expected to grow 3.9 percent by 2017 and increased 5 percent from Q1 2013 to Q1 2014. Part of that stems from slow job gains and population growth. Wilcox shows Arizona’s monthly job growth averaging 2.1 percent so far this year. That’s better than during the recession, but down from 2.8 percent in 2013, 2.6 percent in 2012 and no where near the pre-recession growth. Slower job growth stunts population gains — long key to real estate and economic growth in Phoenix and Tucson.

Mike Sunnucks writes about politics, law, airlines, sports business and the economy.

Filed Under: Uncategorized
« Previous Page
Next Page »